Although it is difficult to ignore the recent news of Angelo Crowell’s season ending injury, there is still a game to be played this Sunday in Orchard Park, NY. A fairly unfamiliar foe trots onto the field at Ralph Wilson Stadium to open the season this year, as the Seattle Seahawks will square off against the Buffalo Bills for the first time since the Drew Bledsoe era.
This is obviously an important game, especially considering the Bills have a strong desire to come out of the gates with a win this year, as they have dropped their opener in 3 of the past 4 seasons, and have started slowly in each of those 4 years. With this goal in mind, the importance of this game is magnified even further when you consider the Bills must travel to Jacksonville for their week 2 match-up. If Buffalo loses this weekend, I don’t like their chances of avoiding an 0-2 start to the 2008 season.
In order to win their first opener since 2005, Buffalo will first have to slow the Seattle passing attack. They have received some help in that department already, as Hasselbeck’s top 2 targets are both unlikely to play. However, there are whispers that Branch is going to try to give it a go. Either way though, Seattle will not be as dynamic in their receiving corps. That said, the Seahawks racked up nearly 250 yards per game through the air in 2007, good for 8th in the league. If Branch doesn’t suit up though, I truly like the Bills’ chances defensively in this game. Regardless of Hasselbeck’s ability, it will be difficult to overcome the losses of 2 top tier receivers. Buffalo’s corners are formidable, and will be able to line up against the depth receivers Seattle will throw at them.
Of course, slowing down the passing game will require a bit more than good coverage. Something that plagued the Bills a season ago was the lack of quarterback pressure mounted by the front four. Players like Chris Kelsay and John McCargo will need to step up their game, which will be aided by the addition of Stroud in the middle. They will have to make Hasselbeck as uncomfortable in the pocket as they can, and if they are able to do this with some consistency, they will slow the high-powered Seahawks offense down.
While Seattle boasted a potent passing game in 2007, their running game was very average, finishing 20th in the league and averaging just over 100-yards per game. Conversely, this was a problem on the defensive side of the ball for the Bills, who finished 25th against the run a year ago while allowing nearly 125-yards per game on the ground. However, the Bills have gone to greater lengths than Seattle to upgrade in their respective department. That said, just because Buffalo are a better team against the run on paper, doesn’t mean it will translate onto the field this Sunday.
Offensively, there are still a lot of question marks for the Bills. Instead of boring you with the numbers, I’ll simply say that there is a need for improvement in nearly every aspect of their game, except pass protection - oh wait, their Pro Bowl left tackle is still a no show. Despite all of these problems, one thing can put a stop to all of the doubting, and that is strong play from quarterback Trent Edwards. I fully expect that the Bills will try to slow this weekend’s game down to a moderate pace. If Edwards can avoid mistakes, and make the 5-6 plays he will be asked to make, Buffalo will win this game. Seattle’s defense will undoubtedly be begging Buffalo to throw the ball by plugging up the box with 7-8 players. Lynch will have nowhere to go if the passing game is as ineffective as it was a season ago. If new offensive coordinator Turk Schonert opens things up, and I think he will, Lynch could have a good day, and afford the Bills the opportunity to win a close game.
Having said all of this, opening up the passing game will not be as simple as it sounds, especially considering Seattle was 4th in the league last season with 45 sacks. That is not good news for the Bills, who will be sending out the ailing Langston Walker, and the unproven Kirk Chambers to line up at the tackle positions this week. I anticipate the Seahawks bringing the heat early and often in this one, and it will be up to not only the front 5 to give Edwards time, but to those in the backfield to pick up the blitzes as well. The Seahawks have a very underrated defense, and will be aiming to force Edwards into mistakes that the Bills will not be able to rebound from. It is here that the game will be won and lost.
Key Match-ups
Kirk Chambers vs. Patrick Kerney: Forget all the hype surrounding the absence of Jason Peters, and his replacement on the left side Langston Walker. Even though Walker is nowhere near as gifted as Peters, I believe the veteran will perform adequately in the season opener. Where the real concern lies is with Kirk Chambers, and his Pro Bowl opponent, Patrick Kerney. Kerney will be relentless, and his eyes are going to be as wide as saucers when he lines up opposite of #73. I honestly will consider a 2 sack performance by Kerney as a victory for the Bills. As long as neither result in a turnover, Buffalo will still have a shot.
Roscoe Parrish vs. Kevin Hobbs/Josh Wilson: With Seattle’s normal nickel back Jordan Babineaux out serving a 1-game suspension, the Bills depth at receiver could be a mismatch for Seattle’s pass package defense. Regardless of what many may think, Parrish is Buffalo’s best receiver after the catch, and if he can get open against some of the Seahawks less talented corners, he is liable to make some plays that will impact the game.
Keith Ellison vs. Julius Jones: Normally I wouldn’t include a single linebacker versus a running back, but this is focused more solely on Ellison. With Crowell now done for the year, Ellison will need to step up and try to make the same amount of plays that his counterpart did. He is an experienced player, and if he can play within the system the Bills have employed defensively, I think he will be effective enough to quell some of the disappointment surrounding the Crowell injury.
Quick Hits
-The last time Seattle visited Buffalo was in 2001, where they came away with a 23-20 win.
-As of this moment, the Bills have only 3 players listed as OUT; Angelo Crowell, Matt Murphy & Derek Fine.
-Paul Posluszny is nursing an ankle injury, and is still a question mark for Sunday’s game, however Dick Jauron says he is confident that he will be a go.
-In addition to the players mentioned above not to be suiting up for Seattle, defensive tackle Rocky Bernard will also be sitting this one out while serving a 1-game suspension.
When all is said and done this Sunday, I have to be honest with myself, and check this one off in the “L” column. This is not to contradict any of what I’ve said prior to this game. I still believe the Bills can win upwards of 9 games this year, but this may not be one of them. I think Seattle wins this one 21-17, in what will prove to be a game decided late in the 4th quarter. Do I think the Bills can win this game? You betcha, but I always have to make my picks based on what I’d do if I had the mortage bet on the outcome. If I didn’t pick like that, you may hear me give you the final score as 21-17 Bills. Either way, buckle up, because it should be a good one! And as always, when I pick against my Bills, I hope like hell I’m wrong. Enjoy the game, and until the final gun sounds…
Go Bills!
