Terry Shilton

The Nba’s Draft Lottery goes tonight and as usual it’s a tale of two players, the first Micheal Beasley the consensus #1 for most of the year Beasley a 6-10 Power Forward from Kansas State has a arsenal of offensive tools scouts drool over: He can shoot the ball, inside, outside, unbelievable athleticism can finish the break, score with his back to you and has that superstar mix of confidence and nasty that all the great players have, which helped him lead his team to a few upset’s in the Ncaa tourney; in short in nearly every statistical category a better freshman year than Durant’s which espn called “arguably the best freshman campaign ever.”

The second is the late bloomer, Derrick Rose was always considered a lottery pick but his value has drastically changed with his Tournament performance, He led Memphis to within minutes of the glory. Derrick has unique athleticism, he can break you off the dribble or just physical dominate, and has shown Nba level decison making with the ball. With young point guards like Chris Paul, Deron Williams having immediate results in the Nba is it any wonder why he is getting a strong look?

Like always who is picked first often depends on who wins the Lottery, so here is a break down of the Lottery teams odds and expected pick.

Miami Heat 25%

A backcourt of Rose and Wade plus Marion and Haslam means pretty immediate respectability but despite Espn stating edge Rose I still see Beasley is the pick only because Wade carries the ball so much what good is a true PG when 30% of the time, the ball will be in Wade’s hands Edge Beasley

Seattle Supersonics 19.9%

Wow Imagine, Sonics get Durant then Beasley in consecutive years, two best freshman collegiate seasons ever drafted to the same team in back to back years not since Shaq and Penny Hardaway would one team be so immediately transformed via the draft. But they may play too similar, plus the Sonics have some good young talent up front and a couple PG that are due a change of scenery Edge Rose

Minnesota T-Wolves 13.8%

Beasley allows this team to move Al Jefferson to Centre, and gives them a scary but young front court plus the team believes the have a good young guard in Randy Foye, Edge Beasley

Memphis Grizzlies 13.7%

This team has drafted the best player available almost to a fault, they have nice pieces but have had trouble establish rotations because they have depth but not that Star and that would change with Beasley also they have good young guards in Gay and Conley, Edge Beasley

NY Knicks 7.6%

New coach new system, new point guard, the Knicks have some forwards capable of scoring in Curry and Randolph they have brought in D’antoni to change the culture of losing what a perfect time for a new PG too try to bring it all together, Rose is especially attractive here as he is accountable at both ends and will set a great example out of the gates, Edge Rose

La Clippers 7.5%

Easily the most interesting sub plots with the Clipp’s who have, well had a fantastic young prospect at PG in Shaun Livingston who has suffered some terrible injuries and may never get healthy, also Elton Brand has a dreaded opt out clause where he can terminate his contract and look to sign elsewhere. Although this team has no real backup plan for a Brand departure, but after letting Cassel go they need a starting PG and Rose fits that bill and is currently healthy, sorry Shaun, Edge Rose

Milwaukee Bucks, Charlotte Bobcats, Chicago Bulls, New Jersey Nets, Indiana Pacers, Sacremento Kings, Goldenstate Warriors and Portland Trail Blazers have an outside shot but as it’s below 5% I’ve left them off for purposes of keeping this post reasonable in length should any of them win i’ll post the pick… 

Also please look for my Mock Draft and Nba Rumours post’s in the coming weeks…

Terry Shilton

What a series so far, the up’s and downs, the emergence of Chris Paul unbelievable, I personally wonder how many journalists would like their MVP vote back. This playoff run has saved basketball in New Orleans this team was essentially the only team without a home court advantage during the regular season as any away team that played in the Hornet’s nest had more supporters than the home team. But now season ticket sales for next year are way up, numerous stars were courtside and their the hottest ticket anywhere. They should honestly do an NBA where the “improbable happens” commerical for this years Hornets, 39 wins to 55 plus, quite the Cinderella story and honestly who’s favorite player right now is not Chris Paul he has been brilliant and done it in such an entertaining way as Greg Popovich put it “he turns games into an organizied playground.”

The Game goes Monday May 19th and is the Can’t miss game of the year.

Keys to Victory for the Spurs

1. Clutch Shooting, the Hornets have doubled Duncan fairly effectively so the Spurs need to make the Hornets pay for doubling him, especially Ginobli if he gets going he can be unstoppable in big games
2. Contain CP3, the Spurs have made a great coaching adjustment here by placing Bruce Bowen on Peja, your not going to stop CP3 from getting his points but if you can contain him from getting everyone else going he can’t beat you alone.
3. Patience, I said to a buddy before the Suns vs Spurs series you didn’t need a shot or game clock to decide this series just give each team 10 possesions and who ever executed them the best would win the series; this game will be the same the Spurs are an exceptionally patient team setting and re-setting plays, experience here is everything, if they control the games Tempo and don’t waste possesions they’ll roll into the West finals again.

Keys to Victory for the Hornets

1. CP3, Chris has been amazing and to beat the Spurs he’ll have to be on Monday, the key is to get other players involved early, if he can get Peja and West going the Hornets have a shot, that being said it won’t be enough just to get them going he will have to shoulder the load on offense as well, To win he’ll need another 30 point 10 assist night any less i see this Cinderella story coming to an end.
2. Foul Trouble, The Hornets have really only two people capable of playing Tim Duncan one on one with any effectiveness; David West and Tyson Chandler if either gets into early foul trouble it will be a long night as they’ll have to double nearly every touch and leave the perimeter open. Chandler is maybe slightly more disruptive defensively because of his length and may be the real key here.
3. Moment, the Hornets can’t get sweeped up in the moment and force turnovers and waste posessions but if they feed of the crowd, run the break, get an alley-oop, or a replay worthy play that positive Cinderella adrenaline can sweep the team, arena, city and can carry them through a major upset. I just love the turn around of this arena the last home game not a fan would sit for nearly the entire first half.

Prediction

I am trying to have some kind of bias here but let’s face I too have been sweeped up in the performance of CP3 and the Cinderella story of the Hornets, plus I have endured enough of the Spurs their dynasty has seemingly no end in sight, I won’t buy into that their boring thing, they play the game with a medical precision have unselfish players, the best power forward ever to play the game, a fantastic coach, hit big shots, even in this series came back from the brink; it’s just that I’m sick of them, it’s like that awkward moment now they have hung around too long for them to be interesting to me anymore, if they win it all again honestly give Tim a statue like MJ but someone please force him to retire.

Final Score: Hornets 103 Spurs 98