Joseph Gallo

I’ve been reading all sorts of articles and blogs the past few weeks where writers and fans have been giving their ideas on how to improve the 2009 Yankees. I’m not going to get into how the team should be re-constructed this offseason (I’ll save that for another time), but I think people are getting a tad bit carried away with how much free money the Yankees will have to spend in the offseason.

Granted it’s true the Yankees can probably spend whatever they want, since they happen to play in the largest media market in the world and they have a brand spanking new stadium opening up which mine as well be called ATM Park. However Yankee GM Brian Cashman does work on a budget, and over the years he’s tried to keep the payroll under control by developing young affordable players instead of chasing over the hill veterans via free agency. As of today the Yankee payroll sits at about 207 million dollars, give or take depending on where you look. I’ve heard people suggest the Yankees can add two big ticket free agents if they please since the payroll will drop by almost 100 million dollars. However I’d like to be the voice of reason and show that that belief isn’t necessarily true.

Let’s take a look at who could leave the Yankees in two weeks, and how much of their money is cleared from the books:

1) Jason Giambi: 2008 Salary: 21 million, 2009 Status: 22 million dollar option ($5m buyout)

- I think its safe to say Giambi won’t have his option picked up. While I can see how he’d be a tad bit tempting to keep as an everyday DH, it would benefit the yankees best to let him walk and pick up the Type B draft pick he’ll provide. Savings for 2009: 15 million

2) Pudge Rodriguez/Kyle Farnsworth: 2008 Salary: 11 million/5.5 million, 2009 Status: Free Agent

- I doubt Farnsworth will be resigned, even though there were a few watery eyes when he left in July. There were thoughts that Pudge could return as a backup in 2009 until Posada is 100% healthy, but his 2008 audition has eliminated any chance of that. Savings for 2009: 5.5 million

3) Bobby Abreu: 2008 Salary: 16 million, 2009 Status: Free Agent

- He shouldn’t be allowed to play the outfield anymore, as he ranks among the worst in baseball in right field. His bat has come on strong late in the season, but he doesn’t hit for enough power or consistency to be the everyday DH in my opinion. Also you’ve already got Matsui in the DH spot, and Nady can slide to right while Damon takes over left everyday, so I’d let Abreu walk this off season. Besides he should net the Yankees two first round draft picks. Not to mention there’s been a lot of talk about the clique he’s formed with Cano and Melky, although who knows how true that all is. 2009 Savings: 16 million

4) Andy Pettitte: 2008 Salary: 16 million, 2009 Status: Free Agent

- I’m a huge Andy Pettitte fan, however his performance in the second half this year has been brutal. He’s stated he really wants to return in 2009, but I’d say that all depends on whether or not he’s completely lost his ability to pitch or whether he’s seriously injured. If the shoulder is what’s causing him to struggle (as has been reported lately), and he’s healthy next Spring, then I say bring him back at a reduced rate. However if he really has lost it, then any money you give him would be the equivalent of flushing it down the toilet. He won’t pitch anywhere else other than NY in 2009, so the Yankees won’t get any draft picks for him. I’ll assume Sunday is his last start as a Yankee. 2009 Savings: 16 million

5) Mike Mussina: 2008 Salary: 11 million, 2009 Status: Free Agent

- Going into this season I would have bet a million bucks this would be it for Mike Mussina. Now, well he could get a 2 or even a 3 year deal. However I think the Yankees bring him back on some type of 1 year deal with an option for 2. Especially since Hughes, Kennedy and Joba are no lock for the 2009 rotation as of today. Assuming however he retires or signs elsewhere, 2009 Savings: 11 million

6) Carl Pavano: 2008 Salary: 11 million, 2009 Status: 13 million dollar option ($1.95m buyout)

- I’ve heard some suggest, and I even considered it myself that they could bring him back and then try to trade him for a player or two. Because as terrible as he’s been, chances are Pavano will still see 2 year offers this fall probably totaling about $10 million dollars. So after paying him and getting nothing in return for 4 years, perhaps now that he’s healthy (we think) the Yankees can finally get something from him. Still I think the organization has had enough with Carl, and a clean break would best suit both parties. Thus say goodbye to the man who will be regarded as the most hated Yankee (although Kevin Brown is close) of the past 20 years. 2009 Savings: 9.05 million

Okay so there you have 6 big contracts which give the Yankees a grand total of $73.5 million dollars coming off the books. They could perhaps trim a few more dollars off if they non-tender Wilson Betemit and a few other fringe minor leaguers, however as you can see that figure isn’t close to the $100 million dollar amount some people have been mentioning.

Now let’s briefly look at who’s coming back next season:

A-Rod: $32 million (which is a $5 million dollar increase from 2008)

Jeter: $20 million

Rivera: $15 million

Posada: $13.1 million

Damon: $13 million

Matsui: $13 million

Wang: $4 million (shouldn’t increase much at all during arbitration)

Nady: N/A (he made $3.35 million this season, and you can bet that will increase to around $6 million or more after arbitration)

Cano: $6 million

Marte: $6 million (I could have included him above, as the yankees hold an option on his 6 million, however I wouldn’t be surprised to see them pick up the option since lefties are a hot commodity)

Molina: $2 million

Remaining: Then you have the list of players who make under $1 million dollars, such as Hughes, Joba, Cabrera, Kennedy, Ramirez, Bruney, Veras, etc. So let’s just add them all up to about $4 million.

So without the 6 mentioned above, as of today the Yankee payroll for 2009 stands at about $135 million dollars.

However then you add in the players who may be resigned such as Mussina at probably about the same salary (11), Pettitte who could come back at half of what he made this year (8) and Abreu at a reduced rate (10). Then you have to figure at least 1 big free agent will be signed, whether its Teixeira, Sabathia, Burnett or M. Ramirez. So let’s just estimate about $20 million dollars on one of those guys. In case you’re wondering that would put the team at about $185 million. Then figure they have to find either a new first baseman or another starting pitcher (depending on who they sign), so in total I have them coming in at just under $200 million for 2009.

That doesn’t seem like a huge drop off to me. But perhaps I’m bringing back to many guys or just overestimating. Again I hope Cashman (or whomever comes in) can do their best to lower the payroll and field a competitive team, but then again after missing the playoffs and getting a new credit card, Hank may just spend $300 million.

That’s it from me today, please send you thoughts or comments to my NEW email address josephgallo@sportstalkbuzz.com. Join me either Sunday or Monday as I say good-bye to the old/renovated Yankee Stadium by giving you a countdown of my personal favorite memories over the past few decades. If you have any that you think I should definitely include, or just want to share an experience you had and enjoyed, just email me and I’ll be sure to mention them. Enjoy the weekend!

Joseph Gallo

With baseball, or any sport in this regard, fans tend to overreact and the media tends to exaggerate.  You really can’t fault either side for their knee jerk reactions, because fans become emotionally and to a degree financially involved in their team, while the media has to create an interesting story for the reader so they can sell newspapers.  However since as a blogger I don’t have to sell anything, and as a fan I try to stay level headed, I can observe these two groups and laugh when they declare the sky is falling.

No one can dispute that the 2008 season has been a disappointment for the New York Yankees, but I have seen fans and the media take it to the extreme by calling the 2008 Yankees a “colossal disappointment” or a “massive failure”.   I find this comical because they are really exaggerating, because with a few lucky breaks and fewer injuries, the 2008 Yankees could have been a playoff team.  Currently with 12 games remaining in the season, the Yankees sit at 80-70, which leaves them 9 games out of the wild card & first place in the AL East.  Compared to this point during the 2007 season the Yankees were 85-64, which put them in possession of the wild card, and only 4 games behind the Boston Redsox for 1st place in the AL East.

Does the difference of 6 games take a team from being a World Series contender to being a mammoth failure?  I mean it’s true that certain players on the Yankees have underperformed this year.  People love to point the finger at A-Rod for not putting up the same numbers he did last year, but is that really fair?  I mean how often does anyone in the majors replicate the offensive production he put up last year?  If anything they should cut him some slack because his back must still be hurting from carrying this team into October in 2007.

Then take into account Jeter’s slight drop in production (OPS+ of 121 to 108), the artist formerly known as Robinson Cano, the season ending injury to Chien-Ming Wang, the loss of Matsui for 3 months and zero wins from 2/5th’s of the opening day starting rotation and I’m sure you can find your 6 fewer wins. 

I don’t mean for this to sound like I’m making excuses, because I’m not.   Over a 162 game season all teams suffer injuries and setbacks, but I just want to make the point for whomever is reading this that they shouldn’t get caught up in all the anger and hatred of the 2008 season being a failure of epic proportions talk because there isn’t much at all that separates the 2007 Yankees and the 2008 Yankees.  The offense may be worse but the pitching has actually been better, believe it or not (runs scored vs. allowed in ‘07: 871-710 & in ‘08: 723-688).

The main difference however comes from the other AL East teams, mainly the Tampa Bay Rays.  The Rays won 66 games last season, this year they’ve already won 88.  Toronto will pass last years total of 83 wins while Baltimore will also pass their 69 wins from 2007.  Bottom line is the AL East is much improved, which is making life far more difficult for the evil empire.  If the Yankees won’t to return to the playoffs in 2009 and beyond, they will need to upgrade their offense and keep their pitchers healthy going forward.  Also they need to continue to develop young players from their minor league system instead of throwing money (which they haven’t done as much lately) at the big ticket free agents.  Because in my opinion the main reason the American League in general has become more competitive is because the small market teams have been able to put more money into their scounting and development programs, money that has come directly from George Steinbrenner’s pocket thanks to the luxury tax and revenue sharing.  So I say let’s not loose our heads here.  The 2008 season has been disappointing for the Yankees, but the franchise is not folding out of embarrassment anytime soon either.  They will be back and competitive in 2009, the question is will they improve enough to make up the 6+ wins they lost from 2007 to 2008?

Minor League News

- Congratulations to the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees and the Trenton Thunder, both of whom captured their respective league championships earlier this week.  Managers Dave Miley of Scranton and Tony Franklin of Trenton both did an excellent job steering their teams towards a championship (especially Franklin, as this makes back to back championships for him with Trenton) despite having to consistently juggle their rotations and lineups due to trades and mid-season call-ups.  There isn’t a lot of glory in managing a minor league team, but both should be able to hold their heads up high today.  And for Yankee prospect followers out there, you’ll be happy to hear that CF Prospect Austin Jackson was named the Eastern League Finals MVP.

Scranton’s season is not finished however, as they will participate in a one game showdown with the Pacific Coast League’s champion the Sacramento Rivercats (Oakland’s AAA team) tonight @ 7:05 pm on ESPN2.  The game will take place at AT&T Bricktown Ballpark in Oklahoma City and is known as the Bricktown Showdown to determine the best team in AAA.  It would be especially sweet to see the Yankees win this game since the game’s best player is presented with the Baseball America Bobby Murcer MVP Award.  My money is on Shelley Duncan, although the Rivercats will be extremely tough to beat since their outfield consist of former major leaguers Carlos Gonzalez, Travis Buck and Chris Denorfia.  And as if Yankee fans needed any more incentive to watch, Ian Kennedy will be the starting pitcher for Scranton.  So be sure to catch some of this as you flip between the Yankee game in hopes of seeing Jeter pass Lou Gehrig for most hits ever at Yankee Stadium.

In other News:

- Congratulations also to Jorge Posada, who apparently received his MD while rehabbing over the past few months.  If you haven’t heard by now, Posada stated yesterday during the taping of his episode on YES’s Centerstage (WITH MICHAEL KAY!) that Joba should stay in the bullpen because he’ll get hurt as a starter.  It’s nice to know that Posada is a shoulder specialist and can foresee future injuries, perhaps now the Yankees can configure their 2009 rotation without any worries. 

Seriously though I’m really tired of talking about this, and hopefully the players keep quiet and allow management to make their decision on what to do with Joba (*cough* STARTER *cough*).  And before you give me the whole “players know what’s going on” speech, let me remind you that the players know whats going on with themselves and thats it.  These are the same players that felt Jason Varitek and Joe Crede were worthy of All-Star spots this year.  I love you Jorge but pipe down and worry about yourself coming back at 100% next spring.  And if you don’t want to listen to what I say, just ask Joba how he feels.  This is courtesy of Peter Abraham at lohud.com:

Chatted a bit informally after the game with Joba Chamberlain. He’s really sick and tired of the whole debate over his role. To Joba, it’s pretty simple. He has been a starter all his life until last July. You know why he’s a good reliever? Because he’s a good starter. He wants to start, period.  The Yankees might have to finagle this a bit next season. But if they put him in the bullpen, he’s not going to be happy.

- Amusing fact of the day: Robinson Cano’s father, Jose Cano’s (who played 6 games in the majors for the Houston Astros in 1989) actual name is Joselito (”José”) Canó Soriano.  Am I the only one that finds it amusing that both Robinson Cano and Alfonso Soriano were both seen as untouchable Yankee second basemen for their first 3 seasons in NY, before the fans wanted them traded because they were viewed as lazy and refused to take a walk.  Maybe on second though we should hold on to Cano for a little while longer, unless of course Cashman can pull off another miracle and trade him for Albert Pujols.

Okay that’s it from me today’s, enjoy the last two weeks of the season which should provide us with a few close races.  Thoughts and comments can be sent to jvg019@yahoo.com.  Later.

Joseph Gallo

One of my favorite tv shows The West Wing called Friday, trash day.  The reason for that is the press reporter would drop all the excess news stories on the media right before the weekend, hence the idea of taking out the trash.  And that is sort of what I am going to do today, but the stories I will link to in this blog aren’t exactly trash, in fact they are the exact opposite.  All of these links are informative and well written, and I encourage you to take a few minutes to sit down and read through them.  I’m just calling this trash day because all of these links have been saved in my favorites list, and I no longer have room for them anymore.  I will of course give my two cents on each link, so enjoy:

1) http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2617

- This is an older article written by Ryan Wilkins at BaseballProspects.com, but the context still holds true to this day.  People love to get on Adam Dunn or Ryan Howard because they strikeout an awful lot per season (Howard averages 190 over the past 3 years and Dunn avgerages 168).  However that doesn’t make them bad ballplayers.  Dunn is my opinion is a very underrated ballplayer (although his defense is terrible) while Howard was a very good ballplayer until he allowed his OBP to slip to .330 this season.  The point of this article is that a strikeout is an out, no worse than a lazy ground ball, but in a way slightly better statistically. 

2) http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6911

- Here’s another one from Baseballprospetus.com, however this one is written by Derek Jacques.  There’s nothing groundbreaking in this article, however it should clear up questions for anyone who doesn’t quite understand how a team accumulates draft compensation.  Since a Type C free agent was eliminated in the last collective barganing agreement, a free agent can only be deemed a Type A (CC Sabathia) or Type B free agent (Pudge Rodriguez), or nothing at all (Carl Pavano).  Take a look and then the next time someone asks you what free agent compensation means you can make yourself look smart.

3) http://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy/alex-rodriguez-clutch-hitter-411/

- I found this today in ESPN’s Rob Neyer’s daily blog, and I literally cried after reading it (okay I really didn’t but it was quite moving).  I’ve defended A-Rod all season long, and despite the fact that I can point to his phenomenal offensive numbers, people always love to throw the “well he’s not clutch” argument in my face.  I of course counter that argument by stating that clutch hitting is a fluky statistic, which can vary from year to year due to the small sample size.  Well this article written by Carl Bialik dives deeper into that discussion and sheds some light on the never ending question of “Does clutch hitting exist, and if so, does Alex Rodriguez excel at it?”

4) http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008/09/08/every-rose-has-his-thorns/

- In my opinion, Joe Posnanski of the Kansas CIty Star is the best at blogging, period.  He mixes pop culture, baseball (and other sports) and investigative journalism all into one ball, which is usually made up over 1,000+ words (the one above may be his shortest ever though).  This blog entry is in regards to an interview he conducted with Pete Rose, who did not seem to like the idea that Derek Jeter or even Ichiro Suzuki can challenge his all time hit record.  I’ll let you read the exact quote from Pete Rose for yourself, and then you can form your own opinion if Rose comes off as bitter or rightfully confident. 

There is no doubt Pete Rose was a legendary hitter, despite his off field actions.  But is his hit record of 4,256 more impressive then say Babe Ruth’s total of 2,873?  In my opinion not really, and let me explain why.  Remember when I told you how batting average is a dead stat because it doesn’t account for walks or slugging percentage.  Well at first glance you’d say that Rose’s 4,000+ hits are far more impressive then Ruth’s total, but what if most of Rose’s hits were seeing eye singles, while Ruth’s hits were monsterous homeruns and ripped doubles into alley ways that extended to nearly 400 feet?  Isn’t an extra base hit better than a single? 

Babe Ruth’s career slugging percentage was .690, Rose’s was .409.  Ruth drew 2,062 walks in his career, Rose drew 1,566.  That’s nearly 500 fewer at bats Ruth had to collect another hit, not to mention the 5,655 more at bats Rose had in his career.  A career that should have ended when he was 40, but he choose to continue to play at a below average level so he could overtake Cobb for the hit record.  Oh and he just so happened to be the player/manager of those Reds teams in his final few seasons. 

I don’t mean to be knocking Rose so heavily here, because he was a great ballplayer and deserved to make the HOF before gamblegate (I still don’t believe he deserves a plaque, he knew the rules, he broke them, hence the lifetime ban stands).  Still he should at least be respectful and acknowledge Jeter and Ichiro’s hit totals, even if he doesn’t want them to take his record.  Also, be sure to see the first comment underneath that blog entry, as it contains a very funny quote from Mickey Mantle in regards to Pete Rose’s hit total.

5) http://www.nysun.com/sports/much-of-k-rods-value-is-derived-from-context/85730/

- This last link also came from Rob Neyer’s blog today, and it makes the argument which I have made before in the past.  K-Rod is having a very good season, but far from the best in baseball.  This article calls into questions the importance of the save statistic, and the argument of how the 5th best closer in the AL can win the CY Young award just because he is on a team that has great pitching and a lackluster offense. (Credit to Tim Marcham of the NY Sun for actually writing the article).

That’s it from me today, hope you enjoyed these links.  I’ll be back next week to go over the latest happenings in Yankee baseball.  Thoughts and questions can be sent to jvg019@yahoo.com.  Later.