Joseph Gallo

I’ve never been a big fan of taking a cooling off period, but I figured it couldn’t hurt to first sleep on what I wanted to talk about now.  However I still feel the same way as I did last night, so prepare yourself for a blog rant. I consider myself a pretty forgiving fan, as I don’t usually jump on a players performance unless his statistics are below average over an extend period of time. I believe strongly in sample size, but also in comparing a players numbers to his scouting reports. The reason for this is that sometimes a player with exceptional tools can struggle, but if we know he has the ability thanks to his scouting report, we are okay with giving said player extra repetitions until he reaches his ceiling. However sometimes a player who doesn’t have very good tools can put up eye popping numbers, and we get suckered into thinking this is the norm for that player, when in reality it is merely a hot streak or a fluke. Thanks to scouting reports we can differentiate a fluky player from a prospect.

However what if a player has a below average scouting report, and continues to put up below average numbers over a extend period of time. You would think this player would be sent down to the minors or see considerable time on the bench, correct? Well somehow Yankee centerfielder Melky Cabrera has managed to defy all odds and solidify himself as an everyday player, despite his lackluster tools and offensive numbers.

When Melky came up in 2006 (I’m going to pretend his 2005 debut never happened) Yankee fans seemed to be drawn to him right away, perhaps because of his unusual name or because we as fans were tired of the 51 year old Bernie Williams patrolling center field everyday. However the most logical reason was Melky brought some new energy to an aging team that desperately needed a spark. Plus it didn’t hurt that he showed tremendous plate discipline, as I’ll always remember one of his earliest at-bats against Billy Wagner when the Yankees rallied in the 9th against the Mets, which was keyed by Melky’s walk against an overpowering pitcher. So when scouts like Jim Callis and Keith Law characterized Melky as a 4th outfielder, Yankee fans pointed to his intangiables, and argued that we didn’t need an all-star at every position to win.

Which is true, Melky isn’t an all-star, but its becoming more obvious each game that he really isn’t even an everyday player. What proof to do I have to back that up? Okay where do I start:

- He has never slugged over .400, which may be excusable for a SS but not for an outfielder.

- His once adoring trait of having patience at the plate is all but gone, as his OBP  has dropped each year (.360, .327, .305).

- He’s a switch hitter but he’s terrible against lefties, with lifetime numbers of .250/.324/.331. This year from the right side, he’s hitting .196/.286/.293.

- When he falls behind in the count he’s basically already out, 0-1 (.233) & 0-2 (.206)

- Since May 1st of this season he’s hitting .223/.284/.290 with 2 HR, 20 RBI and 12 runs scored. Let me repeat, 12 runs scored, and thats it 213 plate appearances!

- In June he hit .206/.289/.255, and hit .222 with RISP, so clearly he’s part of the problem there.

- He hasn’t had a hit in 7 games, and is 0 for his last 19.

I understand some players slump, but as Wyck said to George Constanza on Seinfeld….this is no slump, these are his numbers. I’m not calling for him to be sent to AAA or even released, I just want to know why he has started every game this year, except the 2 games when he served his suspension. Why is he automatically penciled in, especially against lefties? And Girardi please answer why he wasn’t he bunting last night with a runner on first? Instead he took 2 pitches and then grounded into a double play.

All I ask is that you give him a few days off. Who knows maybe it will help him. Don’t get me wrong I would love for him to succeed, and I really hope he rebounds because he is a good defensive center fielder. But for now he should just be a defensive replacement, not getting 3+ at bats a game. Even if he could play defense like Willie Mays that would still not make up for his offensive numbers, because as of right now he’s an automatic out. I bet National League pitchers would laugh at some of his at bats. If scouts thought he was going to be star then I’d live with the numbers for now, like I’m currently doing with Cano. But there is no reason to believe that this is just a bad string. This is who he is. Granted he’s 23, but players rarely ever develop better plate discipline. If anything he’ll develop more power, but still that doesn’t make up for a .310 OBP.

Luckily for Melky, Matsui is out and Damon is hurting, so Gardner will be relegated to left field. But when healthy I just ask Girardi to give Gardner a few games in center. I’m not saying Gardner will stick out there, but its worth a shot no? So far he’s shown me he can work a count, which is more than Melky can do. Melky got his shot, why can’t Gardner get his? And btw if anyone wants a torn GOT MELKY t-shirt, email me and its yours.

Other Yankee Related News

- Girardi is really pushing Robertson, first making him pitch against the Mets then having him work through 2 innings against Texas. His command needs work but his curveball is good enough to get MLB hitters out. I like him as a 7th inning guy.

- Joba wasn’t great by any means last night, but what I love about him is even when he’s off, he still keeps you in the game. If that were Hughes or Kennedy or even Igawa, that game would have been over after 3 innings.

- For some reason this year Mariano Rivera hates pitching in tie games. Still you have to pitch your best guy in that spot.

- Again…WHY GIRARDI WHY WASN’T MELKY BUNTING!!!!

- Betemit is slowly growing on me, I like him as a bench player.

- Arod has announced he will not participate in the homerun derby. I’m fine with that since a) he did it once and was terrible and b) it can effect a players swing (see David Wright, Vlad Guerrero and Abreu). But of course since he’s Arod, media personalities like Jayson Stark are hanging him out to dry for not giving back to he fans. Please, participating in the All-Star game is giving back enough. Go bother Manny for no-showing every year. Also I have to laugh at how Arod visiting Madonna is big news, but Manny pushing down a 64 year old man is just “Manny being Manny”. Arod is far from a saint, but he really gets held to a much higher standard for a guy who has never done anything to hurt or embarrass the game.

- And since I’m in a ranting mood, let me conclude with two things. Number 1…why the hell are the Beastie Boys on K-Rock!?! Isn’t that rap music? Please stop shoving their “rhymes” down my throat. And Number 2…I know ESPN doesn’t care about Hockey, but some people in the US do. It’s an embarrassment that I have to go to TSN or the great Hockeybuzz.com to get free agent signing news, yet ESPN has Baron Davis going to the Clippers as front page news. Try reporting the news and not sucking up to the leagues that make you money!!!! End Rant.

Thats it for today, I won’t post again until after the Sox-Yanks series. So enjoy that and I’ll break it all down on Monday, plus have updates on the International Free Agents who have signed so far. Any comments or questions can be sent to jvg019@yahoo.com. Enjoy the 4th of July!, or to Canadians….have a nice normal weekend.

Joseph Gallo

Wait a second, scratch that, then reverse it.  I’ve fallen a little behind on reviewing the last few series the Yankees have played.  So today I want to get caught up on the last 3 series dating back to last weekend and cover all the other Yankee related news.  So without wasting anymore time lets jump into the way back machine:

Cincinnati Series

Not exactly the outcome I was looking for, but at least they were able to avoid the sweep.  Losing to Volquez wasn’t a shock, and Thompson continued the tradition of rookie pitchers giving the Yankees trouble.  Cueto was very good on Sunday, but so was Andy, and the yankee offense was able to feast on the Reds bullpen after the rain delay.  After Sunday’s win the Yankee’s record stood at 7-2 in interleague play (not counting the first Met’s series), so I couldn’t complain.  Also it was nice to see Griffey hit a homerun in his last major league at bat in Yankee Stadium (barring the All-Star game in July), even though he refused to acknowledge the crowd.  Geez does anyone hold a grudge longer than Junior?

Pittsburgh Series

A lot of Yankee fans were flipping out over Tuesday’s loss, but all I can say is to let it go.  Besides they rebounded well on Wednesday, thanks to Joba whose proving to be quite an asset in the starting rotation.  Good thing Cashman decided to move him or else the starting rotation would consist of Giese, Rasner, Ponson and Igawa.  But the Yankees would still have THE MOST DOMINATING CLOSING COMBO IN THE GAME!!! right?  That still makes me laugh.  Thursday was a waste since we lost Mussina after the rain washed him away after only 3 innings.  And now the Yankees lose their off day next week, fantastic.  And people wonder why the Yankees complain about always having night games on get away days.

Subway Series Part II

Going in I said I’d be happy with a split.  And if you don’t know why I felt this way, well you can just look at the pitching matchups.  Giese finally getting smacked around was to be expected, however Ohlendorf continued his struggles and was optioned to AAA after the game.  That is the right move if you ask me, because I still think he can be useful as a reliever if USED CORRECTLY!  Hated how Girardi kept using him as the long man after Albaladejo went down last month.  If Ponson never throws another pitch in a Yankee uniform, you still have to consider his signing a success.   I thought he’d do an okay job, but never did I expect 6 shut out innings.  I’m not going to get carried away with his performance since he very well could have been knocked out after the 2nd, but I think he earned himself another beer, no wait how about another cheeseburger after Friday’s game. 

Pettitte was great against Santana on Saturday, with help from Reyes who seems to make a baserunning mistake every game.  I mean seriously how do you get picked off second, especially when it wasn’t even a designed play?  I would have bet my morgage (if I had one) that the yankee would lose on Sunday, since they never hit Oliver Perez.  As a Met Perez is 4-0 with a 1.21 ERA against the Yankees.  Think Tampa or Boston have made any calls to Minaya lately?  David Robertson made his debut finally, and he was a little shaky.  I’ll chalk that up to nerves since his track record in the minors has been phenomenal.  Again the scouting report on him is low 90s fastball, so-so control but big breaking curveball.  Unlike Bill Madden I think Robertson will last in the Yankee bullpen for a long time.  Madden however seems to think one major league appearance is enough to right him off.  Yeah you keep up the good work Bill.   Arod was just missing the ball all day, especially as we saw in his at bat in the 9th.  All in all I’m fine with a split, now time to take 2 of 3 from Texas, no excuses.

Other Yankee Related News

- Brett Gardner has finally been called up, but no word yet on who will be sent down.  I think Girardi wants to keep Moeller around a little while longer, so my guess would be Alberto Gonzalez, although Christen could be done now that the string of lefty pitchers has passed.  I think many Yankee fans have overhyped Gardner a bit.  He’s not going to hit for much power and he will strike out a lot.  But he’s shown great plate discipline in the minors and has the speed to beat out a few slow rollers in the infield.  He’s adaquate in the outfield, and we’ll probably see him in left since Damon is hurting.  However I hope to see him spell Melky in center for a few games.  Melky has become an automatic out and needs to see some time on the bench. 

- Matsui could be done for the season if he needs another knee surgery.  I doubt we’ll hear any official word on this anytime soon, since there is no rush to get this surgery done.  Still losing Matsui for the year would hurt, since he was probably the most consistent hitter all season. 

- http://itsaboutthemoney.blogspot.com/2008/06/interview-with-darrell-rasner.html  Good interiview which is a quick read.  In it Rasner discusses his life as a major leaguer, his favorite teammates and his love for all things Metallica.  Take a quick look.

- The rosters have been announced for the Futures Game which will take place over All-Star weekend at Yankee Stadium.  The only Yankee represenative will be Jesus Montero who will be playing for the World Team.  Montero’s line currently stands at .303/.351/.441, which is not bad at all for a 19 year old in A ball.  If Montero can stay as a catcher, which is a big IF (he’s a big kid, 6′4 already), he could be a perennial All-Star.  Even if not he could develop into a solid MLB regular at firstbase.  No Austin Jackson at the futures game unfortunately, as the US team is only carrying players who may play for Team USA, and the Yankees won’t allow Jackson to be apart of that so he wasn’t selected.  Oh and btw Tino Martinez will be managing the World Team. 

- I wonder how Posada feels about being asked to play so much first base over the weekend.  I understand Girardi’s reasoning for making the move, but I can’t imagine Jorge likes it.  He takes a lot of pride in his catching and game calling, and to see Molina back there in a big spot must bother him a little.  Still Girardi has to protect that shoulder so expect to see more of this as the season wears on. 

- Girardi had some harsh words for Ian Kennedy over the weekend, as he emphasied that Kennedy is not on a rehab trip through the minors but that he has been demoted until he pitches better.  Kennedy’s biggest problem in the majors this season was his walk total, and until he learns to trust his stuff he won’t last in the Yankee rotation.  Also Hughes is slowly on his way back, and we’ve heard he may not even pitch in the majors this year, as the organization wants to take it slow with him.  I can undestand that, but if healthy I’d be surprised not to see him pitching meaningful innings come September.

- And closing out the minor league news starting pitchers Alfredo Aceves and Alan Horne, two internal options to join the rotation, both appear headed for the DL.  Aceves has a mild groin strain and will be back in 7 days but Horne may be experiencing a dead arm.  Horne has a potential to throw 4 plus pitchers but has been hampered by injuries and lack of command.  I see no need to rush Alan, although I was hoping he could join the bullpen in August ala Joba from last year.  I still think we see Aceves in the rotation after the all-star break, especially since this groin strain appears to me minor.

- Finally I’ve covered the draft and have mentioned the international free agents before, but just a reminder teams can officially begin signing the international free agents on Tuesday.  Top prize RHP Michael Inoa, who has been called a “once in a generation prosepct” has apparently struck a deal with the A’s for a record bonus of 4.25 million.  The rumor according to John Manuel of Baseball America was the Yankees originally had a deal in place with Inoa for 2.7 million a while back, but Inoa then hired agent Adam Katz as his agent who put the kibash on the deal.  This is disappointing to read since Inoa has been compared to Felix Hernandez, but I’m not going to lose too much sleep over it as Inoa is only 16 and won’t make it to the majors, if he ever does, for at least another 4 years.  I’ll keep you updated on all the other major signings that go down. 

Okay thats it for me, any questions or comments can be sent to jvg019@yahoo.com.  Enjoy your Monday.

Joseph Gallo

Since ESPN thinks every baseball debate has to be linked to the Yankees and the Redsox (most would agree with me on this I think, but we’ll have to save this discussion for some other time), I have come up with my own Yanks-Sox topic to over analyze.  I’m sure you heard the news that the future Republican governor of Massachusetts, Mr. Curt Schilling, will miss the remainder of the season after announcing his plans to go forward with the shoulder surgery he so obviously needed in spring training.  As we have discussed in the past, pitchers almost always come back from elbow injuries, however shoulder injuries can be a much stickier situation, especially for 40 year olds.  Therefore there is absolutely nothing wrong with thinking that Schilling may be done with baseball, and if so, reflecting back on his 20 year career. 

I don’t think I’ve made it a secret that I’m not a fan of Curt Schilling the human being.  If you look up the word ego, there would be a picture of Schilling next to it in the dictionary.  I think he feels his opinions on topics are something everyone should hear, which is why I feel safe in my prediction above that Curt will one day be holding a political position in New England.  It also doesn’t help that he has always been a rival of my favorite team, and never passes up the opportunity to rip on the Yankee fans.  I even refer to him as Schillinger in my general baseball conversations, and if you’ve ever seen the HBO show Oz, you’ll know why.  However love him or hate him, you have to acknowledge that he had a very good career, and always seemed to rise to the occasion on the big stage.  However the question is how good was Curt Schilling?  Does he make the Hall of Fame or the Hall of Very Good?  Many of the analysis at ESPN have stated they feel he’s a Hall of Famer (well there’s a shock!).  Now I acknowledge he’s very close, and if he gets in some day I don’t think it would be a huge travesty as say Jim Rice getting in (and yet another good debate to have).  However if Schilling gets into the Hall, it could open the door for a few other borderline candidates, such as Mike Mussina. 

Most people don’t think of Moose as being a Hall of Famer, however when you compare him to Schilling, you could argue Moose has had a similar or possibly even a better career.  So why is it that Schilling is considered a near lock and Moose isn’t?  Obviously Schilling’s postseason history plays a huge role in this, but one’s Hall of Fame inclusion should be based more so on regular season statistics if you ask me.  So let’s compare what the two of these guys have done during their regular season careers, and if need be we’ll take a look at the postseason numbers at the end.  Does Moose have the better regular season numbers than Curt, or did Curt have the better career peak than Moose?  Let’s take a look:

Well there are the stats in black and white, so after you look them over you have to ask yourself what stands out the most between the two players.  First thing I noticed was Moose has started a lot more games than Schilling, and he managed to do so in 2 fewer seasons.  This will also help account for Moose’s 43 extra wins.  Both were quite durable while healthy though, as Schilling’s 83 complete games are outstanding, but so is Mussina’s 23 shutouts.  So my first though is Moose was consistently good over his whole career, as Schilling had a few seasons in his late 20s where he missed a lot of time due to injuries.  However does that mean Moose had the better peak, not necessarily. 

The Moose knuckle-curve has him just shy off 3,000 strikeouts, while Schilling’s split finger fastball helped make him one of the dominate strikeout pitchers of his generation.  What made Schilling such a special pitcher was his ability to rack up large number of strikeouts and keep runners off base via the free pass.  Schilling’s K/BB ratio was an astounding 4.38 (means almost 5 strikeouts per each walk issued).  Mussina’s K/BB ratio was 3.54, which is also very good but not at Schillings level.  If you want to look at the fantasy stat WHIP, Schilling has the slight lead at 1.14 vs. 1.19.  Both players ERA & ERA+ are nearly identical, with Schilling having the slight lead in both.  But you could argue that Moose had to face DH’s while Schilling faced pitchers 3 times a game, so the minor differences in ERA and WHIP are basically a wash.  Looking at the numbers its tough to really separate the two, except for saying that Moose pitched consistently well his whole career, allowing him to close in on 300 wins, while Schilling was a tad more dominate which is shown in the overall strikeouts and K/BB ratio.  How much of this is a result of the two pitching in different leagues for a while is debatable, but Schilling did show he could handle the AL once he made the switch over. 

If you want to look at the sexy stats (I call them this because its easier for the media and fans to point to these instead of doing the math equations to get ERA+, WHIP, etc) again both compare favorably.  Neither have won a CY Young award, but both were consistently in the Top 10 for voting.  Also they are nearly identical in All-Star game appearances, and Moose should tie Schilling with 6 if he continues strong this season.  Moose has him dominated in gold gloves which is nice, but how much stock can you put into an award Derek Jeter has taken 2 out of the past 3 years (I love Derek but his defense isn’t very good).  The big knock on Moose is that he hasn’t won 20 games (19 game winner twice) and he’s never won a championship, compared to Schilling who has won 3 rings and has won 20 games 3 times.  If it means anything to you baseball-reference.com has Mussina’s closest comparison being Juan Marichal, while Schillings is Bob Welch. 

So ignoring the playoffs, what conclusion can I come to from looking at these regular season numbers?  Honestly I really don’t know, both were very good for a long period of time.  Schilling was more dominate, but did pitch in an easier league for most of his career.  Moose came within 1 out of a perfect game, Schilling came within 1 out of a no-hitter.  Mike Mussina truly lives up to the nickname Mr. Almost, which will hurt him in the future voting process.  Schilling was a visible figure, and pitching in Boston has definitely helped his cause.  While much has been made of Schilling’s postseason numbers, I must point out that Moose was no slouch in the postseason himserlf, as his record is only 7-8, but he has a respectable 3.42 era and 142 strikeouts in 21 starts, which is more than Schilling’s 120 strikeouts in 19 starts. 

My gut reaction is Schilling gets in, probably not first or even second ballot but he does get in.  His postseason success will sway the voters, although it hasn’t helped Jack Morris much.  Mussina will be his generations version of Bert Blylven.  A very good pitcher who was never though of as dominant, but was consistenly good every year.  Mussina may also be helped when the voters reflect back on the steroid era and see what he was able to accomplish against those hitters.  Only way Mussina could make himself a lock is to pitch another 3 years and win 300 games.  Oh and in case you were wondering, Bert Blylven has 287 wins, won 20 games once, had an era of 3.31 and a K/BB ratio of 2.80.  I’ve said I think Blylven deserves to get in, but he’ll have to move over and allow these two guys to get in front of him in line if you ask me. 

Oh btw, Schillinger is now talking about pitching again next year, which shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone.  You know he doesn’t want to miss the opportunity of potentially riding in on his bloody sock and capturing the spotlight yet again.  He could choose not to comeback, but I put the odds of that happening about the same as Moose finally winning 20 games at the age of 39.

What do you think?  Is there an important stat I’m missing or neglecting?  Let me know and we can discuss this further.  Comments and Questions can also be sent to jvg019@yahoo.com.