Trade Breakdown: Yankees acquire Swisher

Hold on a second as I climb up onto my soapbox…okay now I’m ready.  As a Yankee fan I think I can say this without being accused of being biased.   Yankee fans are some of the most obnoxious, shortsighted and simple-minded people I have ever met.  For years all I ever heard from them was how the team was becoming old and one-dimensional.  How the front office needed to stop signing the big-ticket free agents and instead focus on making some trades for younger, under appreciated players who fit the description of a role player instead of an all-star.  More recently the fans have been calling for an influx of young pitchers, after becoming tired of watching free agent bust like Carl Pavano, Jaret Wright and Kei Igawa.  But yet in less than a full season of work, the fans are already calling in to their local radio stations demanding that Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy (neither older than 24 years old) be traded ASAP since they were either over hyped by the media or just too fragile to handle the New York spotlight. 

Granted you can almost understand the fans frustrations with the young pitchers since they have actually seen them pitch the past two years.  But yesterday Brian Cashman trades 3 spare parts and brings in Nick Swisher from the White sox.   There’s no doubt about it, Swisher struggled, and struggled terribly in 2008.  Not only was his .219 average tough on the eyes, but also his OBP dipped to .332, which is about 20 points below his career average.  

So you may ask, what caused Swisher to go from an above average player in 2007 to a poor bench player in 2008?  Take a look at the year-by-year comparison first:

2007: .262 AVG, .381 OBP, .455 SLUG, 127 OPS+, 36 2B, 22 HR

2008: .219 AVG, .332 OBP, .410 SLUG,   92 OPS+, 21 2B, 24 HR

Well you could explain the difference in one word…luck.  Let’s put on our stat geek helmets for a second and compare some more numbers.

‘07: LD: 20% GB: 38% K: 19.9% BB: 15.2% ISO: .193 BABIP: .308

‘08: LD: 19% GB: 35% K: 22.8% BB: 14.0% ISO: .191 BABIP: .251

 

First we see that his line drive percentage is just about the same, which tells you he wasn’t hitting any more of less lazy fly balls than he did in 2007.  His ground ball percentage was also about the same.  As were his strikeouts and walks per plate appearance.  ISOP stands for Isolated Power, which in case you were wondering is calculated using this formula: ISO = (2B + (3B*2) + (HR*3)) / AB. As you can see it also remained constant.  However the one category that is significantly different is BABIP (batted balls in play), which dropped over 50 points.  It’s true that BABIP is a more telling sign regarding pitchers luck from year to year, however I have to take notice if a hitters production drops as significantly as Swisher’s did in 2007, while all other stats indicate nothing really changed in his batting approach. 

So I do think there is evidence available that indicates he suffered from some bad luck.  And perhaps he just wasn’t comfortable in Chicago, which in some cases can cause a player to have an off year.  I’m sure it didn’t help that the White sox moved Swisher to centerfield, where he is a below average defender, compared to a corner outfield spot or even first base, where he is at worst league average.  There were also reports that he wasn’t a fan favorite of Ozzie Guillen, who is a more in your face type manager compared to what he was used to in the laid back Oakland environment (although Joe Giradi isn’t exactly Art Howe either). 

So whether or not you agree with what I presented above, you have to weight the other positives that Swisher brings.  He’s a high-energy guy, much like Johnny Damon.  I can only think that that could help the Yankee clubhouse.  He also can play multiple positions, mainly a corner outfield spot and first base, which the later being his most likely destination in NY.  How about another positive…he’s not over 30 years old!  If Swisher can bounce back to his 2007 self, he is the exact type of role player the Yankee fans have craved since Brosius, Curtis and Knoblauch retired. 

Oh and if you don’t think a player can have an off year, take a look at these numbers:

Age 29: .246/.346/.373 with 14 HR and an OPS+ 102 in 496 AB

 

That was Paul O’Neill’s 1992 season with Cincinnati, the year before the Yankees traded for all-star Roberto Kelly for him.  Now I’m not saying Swisher will be Paul O’Neill, but I’m saying its far too early to write off a guy whose career numbers tell you he is capable of far more then what we saw in 2007. 

Not to mention he is relatively cheap compared to Yankee standards.  Here’s his salary breakdown going forward (courtesy of Cot’s Contracts):

2009: $5.3 M, 2010: $6.75 M, 2011: $9 M & 2012: $10.25 M club option ($1 M buyout)

And the cherry on top of all of this to me is the Yankees really didn’t give up much at all to acquire a player who could be our everyday first baseman in 2009 (could be much worse, imagine if Cashman traded for Mike Jacobs!).  I’m sure most Yankee fans would have started a collection to get rid of Wilson Betemit, however he does have some value as a utility player so he could be a tad bit useful for the Sox.  Nunez who the Yankees acquired for Alberto Gonzalez at the trade deadline was eligible to be taken in the Rule 5 draft this off-season, so there was no guarantee he’d be around much longer anyways.  And finally Jeff Marquez who was a first round selection in the 2004 draft had become expendable after a so-so injury plagued 2008 season.  At his absolute peak Marquez could possibly become a Jake Westbrook type sinkerball pitcher, however most scouts see him as an emergency 5^th starter and long man out of the bullpen.  Marquez gets decent movement on his sinking fastball, but really doesn’t have a plus secondary pitch which will be able to get major league hitters out, although he continues to work on his curveball and change up.  ESPN’s Keith Law also pointed out in his latest blog entry that the White sox are likely to teach him a cutter (which they do with all their young pitchers), which could be an asset to his arsenal.   

More importantly trading both Marquez and Betemit clears 2 spots on the Yankee’s 40 man roster, which can now be used on Swisher…and possibly a free agent pitcher with the initials CC (who they can now focus on obtaining instead of dealing with Scott Boras and Mark Teixieria).  Speaking of CC, I will be stepping off my soapbox early next week to go over the elite free agents of the 2008 class.  So be sure to check it out.

Questions or comments can be sent to josephgallo@sportstalkbuzz.com.  Enjoy the weekend.

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