Bills vs. Patriots - Preview

There isn’t a subtle way to put it, so I’ll be blunt.  The Bills absolutely, undoubtedly, unquestionably and unequivocally must have this Sunday’s game in New England.  There is no way around it, and Buffalo have left themselves no choice in the matter by dropping each of their last 2 division games.  I’ll stop short of saying their season may be over if they come back to Buffalo 5-4, but one certainly cannot debate the damage that will have been rendered should they lose 3-straight division games, and 4 of the last 5 overall.  As we saw in the first 4-weeks of the season, wins and losses are obviously the most important factor in a team’s playoff chances, but so many other factors play a part.  For example, momentum, confidence and most importantly, tie-breakers.  And with a loss this weekend, all of these will be a stroke above par.

Avoiding this fate will not be an easy task, and it definitely will not be as easy as so many thought it would be 3-weeks ago (i.e. momentum, confidence - the fans are not immune).  From watching last Monday night’s game between the Colts and the Patriots, I can utter only 3-words that strike the fear of God in me: Third and short.  In only 7 possessions (also indicative of long, time consuming drives) New England gave themselves a manageable 3rd down of 5-yards or less 6 times.  Five of them resulted in conversions and the extension of a drive.  Sorry for drawing a seemingly ludicrous comparison, but who does this remind you of early in his career?  Tom Brady anyone?  Move the ball methodically down the field, convert the short yardage 3rd downs, eat clock, and finish with points.  This not only wears a defense down, but it puts undue pressure on an offense.

What bothers me even more about the above concern is that the Bills have been just as bad with 3rd and short on the defensive side of the ball.  Now, that may sound obvious, considering most defenses will likely have better numbers when facing 3rd and long.  However, what that does tell me is that Buffalo’s defense is allowing teams to put themselves in manageable 3rd down situations, as well as allowing teams to sustain long drives.  This has been a trend in 3 of the last 4 games, and it’s no surprise that they are the games the Bills have lost.

The other obvious number that has been plaguing the Bills of late is their turnover ratio.  They have now turned the ball over 5 more times than they have forced turnovers.  The Patriots on the other hand are a +1 in this department.  Thus, it doesn’t take a brain surgeon to figure out that one of the keys to this game (and any game really) will be for the Bills to protect the football, something they, as well as Edwards, have not been doing well enough in recent weeks.  The rookie mistakes are starting to pile up for #5, and they have to stop this Sunday, or Buffalo will find themselves at the bottom of the AFC East heap wondering what the Hell happened.

Key Match-ups

Buffalo Defense vs. Wes Welker:  I’ll say it now, Randy Moss does not scare me this week.  However, the mere thought of Wes Welker requires me to obtain a change in shorts.  Bearing in mind my worries about Buffalo’s defense facing a lot of 3rd and shorts, why wouldn’t this be the case.  Welker is so dangerous, and not only is he a threat to convert those 3rd and shorts, he is a threat to create them as well.  The Bills need to jam him, and give him no respect at the line of scrimmage.  The risk here does not outweigh the potential reward.

Trent Edwards vs. New England Linebackers: It’s no different than last week, Buffalo will face a 3-4 defense, and they struggled mightily against the Jets.  Edwards seemed more confused than he has all year against New York.  He had happy feet, was holding the ball longer than usual, and made a horrible decision that may have cost his team the game.  Nevertheless, he should have learned a little something in the process, and he will need to read the defense, and feel the pressure with more authority this week, otherwise it will be a similar outcome.

Dick Jauron vs. Bill Belichick: Belichick is undeniably one of the best coaches in the league, and Dick Jauron will have to be his equal for at least one week.  Can Jauron and company build a game-plan that will confuse Matt Cassel, who has been virtually un-rattled in recent weeks?  Or, will Belichick find ways to confuse Buffalo’s young QB?  I obviously hope the former will apply, but I believe it will take an aggressive game-plan.  Something has got to give in that regard.

Quick Hits

-As I mentioned earlier in the week, Buffalo have not won in New England since the Doug Flutie led Bills won a 16-13 contest in 2000.

-Speaking of last times, the Bills haven’t beaten the Patriots period, since a 31-0 romping on opening day 2003. 

-Trent Edwards is making his 18th career start this Sunday, and will match his number of a year ago.  So, I guess I shouldn’t be calling him a “virtual rookie” anymore.

I’ve mentioned the injuries, you know the problem areas (i.e. the running game, and the pass rush), and I’m not going to bore you with anymore statistical analysis.  It’s simple - Buffalo have to find a way to win the game despite these shortcomings, because they aren’t going to fix themselves, and they aren’t going to improve in one short week.  They need to win a game like they did against Jacksonville, Oakland or San Diego - on sheer will and determination.  They need to make 1 or 2 plays at the right time, and if they do, they’ll come home 6-3.  So here’s to hoping they can…

Go Bills!

timanderson@sportstalkbuzz.com

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