My November BCS Matchups
November 3, 2008 by Dave C
Filed under Big 12, NCAA Football, Pac 10, SEC
Ok I get it. USC won’t be in the National Championship game, even if they thrash their four remaining opponents in similar fashion to Saturday’s 56-0 blowout win over Washington. It’s just not going to happen.
So I’ve resigned myself to the Trojans being forced to play for the Rose Bowl, the granddaddy of consolation prizes (although if Oregon St. wins out, the Beavers may get the bid over USC because of the fluke in Corvallis on Sept. 25). But I’ll assume USC gets that berth and with that, I’ll reveal what I think the match-ups will look like following Selection Sunday.
BCS Championship: #1 Penn St. vs #2 Florida
Let’s get the obvious out of the way - the Nittany Lions will win out and finish the regular season undefeated.
Now it gets tricky. I think Alabama rolls through the rest of its regular season schedule (@ LSU, vs Miss St., vs Auburn), as do the Gators (@ Vandy, vs South Carolina, vs The Citadel, @ FSU) leading to an Alabama-Florida SEC Title game. Nick Saban’s boys succumb to the pressure, while the tried, tested and true Florida Gators prevail by a final score of 27-21 to claim the SEC Championship.
Meanwhile, Texas Tech beats Oklahoma St. next week, but falls to the Sooners on Nov. 22 (that’s a bear of a schedule for such an inexperienced bunch!). Texas ultimately claims the Big 12 South by virtue of the tiebreaking win over Oklahoma, while Texas Tech drops too far in the polls after losing to the Sooners. Because Texas’ Big 12 Championship win over Missouri will look less impressive than Florida’s SEC Title win over ‘Bama, the Gators leapfrog to number 2, which leaves the Horns on the outside looking in.
Now to the rest…
Sugar Bowl: #4 Alabama (at large) vs #8 Utah (at large)
The Sugar Bowl, by virtue of losing SEC Champion Florida immediately selects at-large Alabama to fill that hole. Utah finishes its season undefeated and is among the top 12 earning the Utes an automatic BCS berth.
Rose Bowl: #6 USC (Pac 10 Champ) vs #5 Oklahoma (at large)
USC returns to the Rose Bowl for the fourth straight year with another Pac 10 title. Instead of filling the hole with a Big 10 opponent which it did last year (and we all remember what happened with Illinois), Pasadena gets a re-match of the 2005 NC game.
Fiesta Bowl: #3 Texas (Big 12 Champ) vs #10 Boise St.
Mack Brown’s campaign falls short this time by virtue of Florida’s impressive victory over previously undefeated Alabama in the SEC Title game and its loss to Texas Tech relegates them to their Tempe tie-in. Boise St. becomes the other mid-major in the top 12 in the BCS standings with a perfect record.
Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech (ACC Champ) vs West Virginia (Big East Champ)
Since the ACC Champ is tied in to the Orange Bowl, it only makes sense to make the other three tier 2 BCS games as sexy as possible so the Mountaineers, whether or not they’re ranked at this point, face the Jackets in Miami.
=================================
All the while, Texas Tech feels slighted, wondering why they’re snuffed out of the BCS while the Longhorns, a team they have a win over, are sitting pretty in Tempe. Maybe next year Red Raiders…maybe next year!
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Last post (s) by Dave C
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November 3rd, 2008 at 12:07 pm
Great stuff Dave! I have a funny feeling PSU loses at Iowa or to MSU……..PSU will get rolled in the title game if they make it. I have this funny feeling that Texas gets into the Title game if OU beats Tech.
November 3rd, 2008 at 12:11 pm
As much as all college football fans (outside of that small microcosm of a world called Big 10-nation) may want, PSU will run the table. Despite your funny feeling, we’re in for another drubbing of a NC game. If my predictions hold true, the Rose will be the game to watch this year.
November 3rd, 2008 at 12:17 pm
Kev, I think PSU is getting no respect at all and they do have a far better team then people who haven’t watched them think, write, or blog about.
While yes they could loose just like anybody they can just as easily win.
As of this moment PSU’s offense is ranked 8th while Florida’s is ranked 7th overall.
Defense for PSU’s is ranked 4th while Florida’s is ranked 5th, this could be one hell of a match up if it happens.
Where I still think Florida is weak is with their DB’s, but because they have had a awesome pass rush very few have even been able to test it.
November 3rd, 2008 at 12:24 pm
I guess I have a problem with the fact they have beat only one ranked team and that was OSU who got rolled by USC. But you make a valid argument.
November 3rd, 2008 at 12:25 pm
Oh man, I certainly hope not. I will be cheering for Iowa and MSU big time!
November 3rd, 2008 at 12:31 pm
Ironically, Penn State ripped Oregon State apart and that’s the team that beat USC. So much for that theory!!
November 3rd, 2008 at 12:38 pm
You can only do so much with the conference schedule your forced there, where they can improve is non-conference which they do in 2010 and 2011 when they have Alabama on the schedule.
November 3rd, 2008 at 12:45 pm
Comparing Florida’s offensive ranking to Penn States is hilarious. The Lions have played one good defense all season and needed a fumble to set up their only TD in that game.
Florida has murdered Georgia, Kentucky and LSU’s defense. All of which were ranked in the top 50. We’ve seen what SEC offenses can do to Ohio State, and Penn State didn’t match it.
Florida’s statisical rankings are playing the best conference in the country while Penn States is against Wisconsin and Ohio State. Two potential Outback Bowl losers if I every saw one.
On a related note Utah and Boise St, make me sick to my stomach. One of Texas, Oklahoma and Texas Tech won’t make it for those teams.
And the Big East is a joke.
November 3rd, 2008 at 12:47 pm
Just throwing numbers out there, there is not much Penn St can do as I said with their conference schedule it is what it is. Florida plays in the better conference by far but that in no way means you can just discount Penn St as a team.
November 3rd, 2008 at 12:50 pm
I disagree with your take on Utah on Boise St. Nich. Utah plays in the Mountain West - a conference that is as good as any this year!!
Boise State proved it belonged when they beat Oklahoma in that crazy Fiesta Bowl a couple of years ago.
I would obviously prefer if the third Big 12 team made it over WVU or Georgia Tech though…
November 3rd, 2008 at 12:53 pm
It’d be nice to have the forget the ACC & Big East this year as neither conference has a team really worthy of earning a BCS spot and I am a Florida St fan.
Having a team from either conference take up a BCS spot is just simply not in the best interest of the college game.
November 3rd, 2008 at 12:53 pm
It’s not so much Penn State as a team James. It’s the perception of the conference, given the Big 12’s performance in big bowl games in recent years. Like Nich and Kevin, I find it very hard to take Penn State seriously and I think the pollsters agree, given the fact that PSU is ranked behind the other undefeteads. They can redeem their conference’s reputation if they win their BCS bowl, whether it’s the title game or the Rose. But it’s hard not to think they’ll get thrashed.
November 3rd, 2008 at 12:55 pm
It may be worth tweaking the rule that a major conference’s champ needs to be a top 20 or top 15 team to earn an automatic berth.
November 3rd, 2008 at 12:56 pm
By Big 12, I meant Big 10!!!
November 3rd, 2008 at 1:10 pm
I didn’t say it’s hard to think they could loose I think it’s unfair to knock them because of the poor efforts Ohio St put up in the last 2 BCS games.
Why not knock Oklahoma for the eggs that have laid since winning the 2000 National Championship. They have done worse the Ohio St in the BCS overall.
November 3rd, 2008 at 1:10 pm
Big East and ACC comissioner just called, they want their money no matter where their teams are ranked….
Don’t ever forget $ is what college football is all about.
That’s why the idiots at FOX with announcers we haven’t heard all year cover the “biggest” games of the year.
I’ll be watching the Winter Classic, Go Hawks. (Just kidding Gary, you’re a moron going against the biggest College FB day of the year.)
Although maybe subconciously Bettman put the game in Big 10 country because all their fans know what’s gonna happen to them…
November 3rd, 2008 at 1:15 pm
Plesse not get started on the the troll bettman, There is not enough turns around for throwing him under the bus and then putting it in reverse.
November 3rd, 2008 at 1:18 pm
The hell with Bettman! Go Habs!!
November 3rd, 2008 at 1:26 pm
I have 4 habs on my fantasy hockey roster. Koivu, Latendresse, Markov, & Plekanec.
I made trades to get Koivu & Latendresse.
November 3rd, 2008 at 1:36 pm
Nice to see Plekanec finally show up, but I think you’re best off finding someone better than the Tenderness. It looks like Higgins has re-gained the spot on the Koivu line with Tanguay.
November 3rd, 2008 at 1:41 pm
When I get home I will post my entire roster for you.
November 3rd, 2008 at 3:39 pm
Pavel Datsyuk, Det C
Henrik Sedin, Van C
Saku Koivu, Mon C
Matt Stajan, Tor C
Daniel Sedin, Van LW
Marco Sturm, Bos LW
Jussi Jokinen, TB LW
Vaclav Prospal, TB LW
Martin St. Louis, TB RW
Guillaume Latendresse, Mon RW
Dustin Brown, LA RW
Mikael Samuelsson, Det RW
Dion Phaneuf, Cgy D
Andrei Markov, Mon D
Pavel Kubina, Tor D
Sami Salo, Van D
Ryan Suter, Nsh D
Nick Boynton, Fla D
Ed Jovanovski, Pho D
Mike Ribeiro, Dal C
Tomas Plekanec, Mon C
Ryan Callahan, NYR, RW
Ryan Miller, Buf, G
Tim Thomas, Bos, G
Kari Lehtonen, Atl, G
November 3rd, 2008 at 5:45 pm
Forgive me if I touch on something already hit on, but I haven’t read through all of the posts. However, it sounds like you think if Alabama wins its conference title game, they will easily get in over PSU.
So, what do you think will happen if Alabama finds a way to win that game, and PSU still runs the table. Does Florida get by PSU with a loss, or is it #1 Alabama vs. #2 PSU.
I’m really interested to hear what you have to say, because I have little knowledge of how the BCS works.
November 3rd, 2008 at 6:53 pm
It would be almost impossible for two teams from the same conference to get into the BCS title game. The only conceivable way be for two teams in the same conference be in the top 5. So lets use Florida and Georgia as an example. They are both in the SEC’s East division so would play each other once. Only the winner of the East goes to the SEC title game, so if Florida were to finish 13-0 and Georgia finished 11-1 with just a close loss to Florida it could work out.
With Alabama/Florida being the likely SEC title matchup the winner would likely be into the BCS title game, while the loser would make the BCS most likely in the Sugar Bowl the SEC Champions tie in.
And right or wrong, second best team in the nation or not, I think Penn State gets in if they win out. But November never plays out the way it “should.”
November 3rd, 2008 at 10:18 pm
Dave, The Mountain West IS having a great year.
Whole conferences do not have good and bad years, as I remember being ripped for a comment about the Big 10 having down years (last winter after the Buckeyes got their asses handed to them by LSU).
I had to add that.
Great article though! Texas Tech played a great game against Texas Saturday night, but I don’t expect them to win out. PSU will. Iowa is not going to give them a game and neither will the Spartans. I also have to agree with most of the responders to your article. Penn State is playing teams that don’t have the talent that Alabama has and will probably get beat up in the NC game…if ‘Bama makes it.
BTW, I am still looking for a USC jersey to don for the picture.
Thanks for the article, Dave.