Bills vs. Jets - Preview

For those of you who shook your heads after reading my “playoffs start now” blog, this piece will offer you little respite.  The NFL season has nearly reached its half-way point, and as we all know, this is the time of year where playoff teams start winning games, and those who are on the fence, start losing them.

Never mind the weekly contemplation as to whether or not the Bills will finally find a way to put together a running game, it is a must this week.  No questions asked!  The good news, is that in recent years the Bills have been very effective at running the ball against the Jets, and will undoubtedly hope to continue that trend this Sunday.  In fact, for the past 3 seasons (6 games), Buffalo have averaged over 146 rushing yards per game against New York.  And, with Buffalo’s somewhat anemic running attack (currently ranked 22nd in the league), coupled with the Jets top notch run defense (4th in the NFL), perhaps these relatively useless historical figures are the only ray of hope that we have as fans.

Why is this running game thing so important?  Well, to begin with, as I discussed earlier in the week, the receiving corps took a big hit with the loss of Reed last week, and they cannot be counted on as heavily as they have been.  Moreover, this too touches on my theme that playoff football begins this weekend.  Not only do those teams that are legitimate playoff contenders start winning games in November and December, they often do so by running the football with authority.  The Bills have yet to do that for even a single game this year - red flags anyone?

Keeping in line with the run game, the Bills run defense has surprisingly (when compared to last season) been solid throughout their first 7 games, and I expect them to keep the Jets ground attack in check.  Where my concern lies however, is with New York’s passing game.  This will not be the nickel and dime, Chad Pennington led offense seen in recent years.  This is an offense run by gunslinger Brett Favre, who will open things up, and go downfield with regularity.  If the Bills secondary is unable to contend with the Jets’ receivers, they are going to be in for another long day. 

On the other hand, Brett Favre has offered up 13 turnovers that feature 11 interceptions.  This is good news considering that in Buffalo’s 5 wins, they have out-turnovered their opponents 9 to 5 (real shocking numbers, I know).  What this does illustrate though, is that Buffalo’s offense has been opportunistic, and if granted the short field, they have taken full advantage.  If Favre plays the role of turnover machine as he is known to do at times, I very much like the Bills’ chances in this one, regardless of the ungodly number of yards he may register through the air.

Key match-ups

Terrence McGee vs. Laveranues Coles: McGee squared off against Ted Ginn Jr. a week ago, and gave up just 2-yards less than his previous total for the entire season.  Of course, McGee was not at 100%, but he probably won’t be for the rest of the season, and the Jets know this.  Expect them to go after McGee with Coles, and Cotchery for that matter, as often as they can.

Marshawn Lynch vs. NYJ Linebackers: The Jets employ a 3-4 defensive front, so Edwards and company can expect a number of blitz schemes, and a lot of linebackers attempting to get into the offensive backfield.  Lynch will need to be on his toes, and pick off the NYJ blitzers in order to keep his quarterback from taking a beating similar to the one he took a week ago.

Leodis McKelvin vs. Chansi Stuckey: With Youboty potentially on the sidelines this week, McKelvin will need to handle the upstart Stuckey.  Coles and Cotchery will be giving McGee and Greer all they can handle, and Stuckey has been flying under the radar this year, with 19-catches, 225-yards and 3 touchdowns.  With the lack of confidence McKelvin has been playing with, I can assume that the Jets will see this match-up as a severe mis-match in their favor.

Quick Hits

-The Jets last won in Buffalo during the 2006 season, landing a 28-20 victory.

-Brett Favre is a pedestrian 2-3 against the Bills lifetime.

-The Bills are 4-2 in their last six games with the Jets - 2-1 at home.

After all is said and done this Sunday, I do feel that the Bills will get the job done.  I simply believe they are the more complete team, and that Edwards will bounce back from his sub-par performance of a week ago.  I don’t think it will be easy, and I suspect the margin of victory will be less than a touchdown.  However, let me say this; if Buffalo are able to get up early, Favre can be counted on to take more chances, and the flood gates could fly open if you know what I mean.  But, I won’t think that optimistically, and I’ll say Buffalo takes it 24-20.  Until the half-way point…

Go Bills!

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