Monday Night Preview: Broncos @ Patriots

Well in case the Patriots didn’t notice yesterday as the Bills handled the Chargers at home their forthcoming matchup with the Denver Broncos became even more important. The Patriots currently sit 1.5 games out of first place in the AFC East and a loss tonight would push them two games back. Now granted the Patriots play the Bills twice, but the chances of New England beating Buffalo twice or outplaying them by two games in the second half of the season seems remote at best. So therefore the Patriots better hope Bill Belichick has figured out how to beat the Broncos.

The Patriots offense has struggled all season without Tom Brady, but the Broncos just might be what the doctor ordered. The Broncos team defense ranks 30th in the league giving up just under 400 yards per game, including a league worst 255.5 passing yards per game. One might think with that in mind Matt Cassel will be slinging the ball down field all night. However we’ve been given a pretty solid indication over the last couple of weeks throwing doesn’t seem to be his forte. Which is a bit of a problem when your an NFL quarterback. The Patriots must, must establish the run in this game. Their defense has to also step up, Cassel cannot play the comeback game. If the defense is anticipating pass against Cassel, mistakes will be made and capitalized on. Sammy Morris and Kevin Faulk the Patriots only fully healthy backs must have good nights if the Patriots are to keep Jay Cutler and Co. off the field. This year opponents have averaged 5.1 yards per carry against Denver, downtrodden Red Sox fans better hope that trend continues.

On the other side of the ball the Patriots find a passing attack even better then the Chargers who exploited their secondary all night long last week. The Broncos have given up only two sacks this season and average 7.47 yards per passing play. Jay Cutler’s team is the only team in the NFL that holds a multiple win streak against the Pats, at three games including their 2005 playoff encounter. But Cutler himself has never faced the Patriots. Although I personally think in three to four years Cutler will have established himself as one of the top-5 quarterbacks in the league, if he’s not there already I think he may struggle tonight. The Broncos turned the ball over just three times in their first three wins (Well 4 if you count Cutler’s “fumble” vs. SD) but have eight turnovers in their last three games. If the Patriots can force turnovers they will win this game but if Jay Cutler can preform on this national stage fans in Buffalo will be feeling very good about themselves around midnight tonight.

Prediction:

Broncos by 3-7

*Note this is my first STB prediction in just under a year that has the Patriots losing.

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