Message To Pollsters: DON’T SCREW USC
September 24, 2008 by Dave C
Filed under NCAA Football, Pac 10
I originally intended on breaking down the Oregon St. Beavers today as they prepare for their toughest test of the year against the top-ranked USC Trojans. However, recent e-mails and expert columns have prompted me to write a plea to anyone who is involved in selecting the top two teams in the country when the 2008 regular season comes to an end.
Background
Barring a monumental upset, the Trojans will finish this regular season with a perfect 12-0 record. Their conference opponents are considerably weaker than Oklahoma’s foes in the Big 12 (Texas, Missouri) as well as whoever comes out of the SEC. There is rumored concern that we could be headed for another BCS disaster-a la-2004, when USC, Oklahoma and Auburn all finished their regular seasons with perfect records and only the Trojans and Sooners ended up in the Orange Bowl. In reality, I don’t expect the SEC champion to finish the regular season with an unblemished record again, but it could happen so let’s for argument’s sake say it does.
The experts are saying they wouldn’t be able to leave out Oklahoma or an SEC team with a perfect record from the BCS Title game, despite the fact that the consensus is that this USC team is better than its two championship squads from earlier in the decade. They say USC’s schedule in the “Slack 10″ will ultimately hurt them, even if they rout their opponents in the same manner that they annihilated the Buckeyes on Sept. 13. Ultimately, USC might get screwed just because the people who live on the left coast have more important things to worry about than football 24/7. The Trojans, in other words, are geographically undesirable, compared with the ole south and the heartland.
Reality
Under no circumstance am I going to argue the obvious. The Big 12 Conference and Southeastern Conference have stronger teams than the Pacfic 10. That is a fact and it was confirmed when Georgia walked into the blistering heat of Tempe, AZ and humiliated the Sun Devils.
Here’s another fact, though. Up until Sept. 13, the pollsters had Ohio St. ranked 5th in the country. Prior to that day, those same pollsters had Ohio St. ranked as high as first in several polls. The USC Trojans, knowing this, had the guts to schedule the Buckeyes as one of their non-conference games. They game-planned, executed and ultimately, whipped the Bucks. Ironically, the post-game chatter was more about how over-rated OSU was than how dominant USC was. Their 35-3 win was more of an afterthought as the “experts” insisted that the Buckeyes never deserved the high ranking to begin with.
Fact #2: In 2003, the USC Trojans finished the regular season ranked #1 in both the AP and coaches poll, yet the BCS selected LSU and Oklahoma as its teams for the championship game, citing the weak schedule as its reason for dropping USC to 3rd in the BCS standings. USC was relegated to the Rose Bowl, blasted Michigan and earned a split of the national championship, while the National Chumps, the Oklahoma Sooners, were beaten by LSU. Pete Carroll tried to hide his disappointment with the selection to this game by saying that the only thing the Trojans can control is winning the Pac 10 and playing in the Rose Bowl. While this is true, I’m sure he would have liked a chance to play LSU and I think LSU would have loved a shot at USC that year.
Fact #3: In 2004, USC, Oklahoma and Auburn all finished the season undefeated, but since USC and OU opened the season ranked first and second respectively in the polls and never lost, they retained their rankings and got the invite to the Orange Bowl, while Auburn was relegated to New Orleans. Again, those National Chumps, the OU Sooners, were destroyed on the national stage and Auburn of the SEC (despite running the table in that nightmare of a conference) was left on the outside looking in.
Theory
In retrospect, USC (Pac 10) was screwed in 2003, Auburn (SEC) was screwed in 2004 and Oklahoma (Big 12) was destroyed in both of those seasons! In a perfect world, the fair matchup would be USC and the SEC champion in the BCS Title Game if they, and the Sooners go undefeated this year. The Sooners had two tries in this decade and blew it both times. The 2004 and 2005 ultimate revenge bowls can all be settled in one, tempered-filled evening in South Florida.
To those who would use the Pac 10’s weaknesses as a reason to leave out USC, consider the fact that USC has owned its nonconference opponents since 2003 (except for that one loss to Texas in the 2005 Rose Bowl — a game that was decided on the final drive). They’ve beaten Auburn, Notre Dame, Michigan, Virginia Tech, BYU, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Nebraska, Illinois, Virginia and Ohio St. Find me an SEC or Big 12 school that has stepped it up and played nonconference opponents like that in the past five years. I dare you. You won’t find it.
Conclusion
A pollster who has the audacity to knock USC because its conference doesn’t match up to the others doesn’t understand college football. If they run the table, they deserve to be there. They’ll even win with style points.
FIGHT ON!!
Like this post? Share it »Last post (s) by Dave C
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September 24th, 2008 at 8:53 am
2004 was a disaster for sure! OU was flat out awful and only 2-6 in BCS bowls under Stoops.
Unless, USC struggles in a few games, I just cant see enough people dropping them out of the top two. Not a chance. Just my 2 cents, but great detailed piece Dave!
September 24th, 2008 at 8:59 am
What’s frustrating though, is that it’s unrealistic to think that they’re going to win every game with style points and pollsters are only going to look at the final score and potentially, the recap.
September 24th, 2008 at 9:11 am
I dont think anyone would fault them for a 7pt. win over Cal or Oregon, especially if the game is on the road. What might trouble the pollsters is a 4pt. at home over a .500 team.
September 24th, 2008 at 9:13 am
It also depends on the other teams’ style points.