Unfortunately I wasn’t able to line up another interview for this week, and since I will be out of town until next Wednesday, I decided to write about something now which makes baseball such a joy to follow (especially since the Yankees are being no hit by the Seattle Mariners as I sit here now. However this blog will talk about a few Yankee players). What I want to talk about are statistics. I love em. I love following them, I love calculating them and I love debating them. For some reason in baseball, more than any other sport, people debate statistics over and over again. What is the reason for this? I honestly do not know. It could be because baseball is such a difficult game to predict, that statistics are the only fair way to judge a player. Basketball is simple, players are judged by how many points they score or rebounds they grab. A football player is judged by their touchdowns, sacks or interceptions. With hockey you have goals and assist (yes I know there are many other important statistics for these sports I’m neglecting, but bare with me for now). With baseball you have homeruns, RBI’s and batting average. Or do you?

What if I were to tell you RBI’s and batting average are meaningless stats which do not fairly evaluate a players talent. I’m sure some of you will just call me a “stat geek” and will tell me to watch more games instead of reading box scores. But the truth is RBI’s really aren’t a fair way to judge how good a player is, because RBI’s are dependent on the players hitting in front of you. Bottom line is if the players in front of you stink and do not reach base, then you can’t bring them home and notch another digit in your RBI column. Then there is the good old batting average, its been around forever right? Well you can ignore that too. A batting average just doesn’t give us enough information, as it can’t tell you if a player hitting .300 is better than a player hitting .250. I mean let’s say that the player that is hitting .300 hits mainly singles, and never walks. But the player that is hitting .250 gets mainly doubles and homeruns, and walks at least twice a game. Yes it’s true that player A reaches base with a hit a few more times than player B, but when player B get hits, he’s more likely to make a difference because his hits put runs up on the board, or he’s putting himself in scoring position, unlike player A who is stranded at first base.

Why am I trying (the key word is trying, as I hope everyone followed what I just wrote) to get you to understand this? Because it amazes me how the so called “experts” just can’t take the time to review a few other important stats, instead of looking at only batting average, homeruns and RBI’s, and then choosing which player is more valuable. I just want them to understand that the main objective of a hitter whose approaching the plate is to NOT make an out, but to get on base, either through a hit or a walk. And no, this is not a Billy Beane “Moneyball thing”. In fact most people missed the point on Moneyball in the first place. The book isn’t preaching to you that Billy Beane is smart because he was one of the first GM’s to focus on obtaining players with high on base percentages. Heck that’s not even true. What the Moneyball book is saying is Beane was smart because he found a tool that was undervalued and cheap at that time, and built a competitive team using it.

The main reason I’m bringing all this stat talk up is because since we are now in September, people have begun talking about who the AL MVP is. I’ve heard Josh Hamilton, Carlos Quentin and recently the hot name has been Dustin Pedroia. But what if I told you none of those guys should even be in the Top 5? Don’t get me wrong but they are all very good players have great seasons. However if you really evaluate a player by stats that give us a little bit more information, like OBP, slugging percentage and VORP (value over replacement player), then you’ll see there are a few more deserving individuals, and I guarantee you a few of these names will really surprise you. So without further ado, here are my Top 5 AL MVP candidates (as of today, September 5th….)

Honorable Mention (These guys are spread out anywhere from 6-15)

Aubrey Huff & Milton Bradley -> Both DH’s who are having fabulous offensive seasons. Bradley is having the better season of the two, as his OBP is .446, which means he’s making an out 5.5 times out of 10 plate appearances, compared to someone a guy who hits .300 yet has an OBP of .310, which means he makes an out 7 out of 10 times. Huff is having one of those comeback seasons that if this were 5 years ago we’d accuse him of being on something. However his line of .313/.370/.575 shows he is one of the most dangerous hitters in the league. However both are hurt in the voting because they offer no value on defense and both play in great hitter ballparks.

Brian Roberts & Dustin Pedroia -> I should also add Ian Kinsler, who had a realistic shot at the MVP award before he got hurt in August. (Evan Longoria is also in the same boat as Kinsler, as he should be in the Top 15, despite getting hurt in August. Without the injury he could have made the top 5 due to his great work at 3rd base). Roberts mixes the ability to take a walk, while hitting for power. Not so much in homeruns where he only has 9, but in doubles where he has 47 and uses his great speed to nab 36 bases in 46 chances. Pedroia has come on like a bull in a china shop recently as he maintains a .505 slugging percentage supports the 4th best VORP in the AL of 58.5. This means he’s worth 58.5 more runs to the Redsox then just a league average second baseman. Both also play an above average second base which helps their value.

Carlos Quentin & Justin Morneau -> Two big guys who can hit a ton, but are hurt by playing offensive minded positions. Usually a team expects big offensive numbers from their first baseman and their left fielder, because those are the two easiest positions to fill. That doesn’t mean they are easy to play, but they are easier than say shortstop or catcher. So for a player to win an MVP award from one of those positions, they really have to put up some big time numbers. Quentin’s slugging percentage of .571 is reflected in his 36 homeruns, while Morneau trails him with only 21 homeruns, but leads Quentin in doubles 40 to 26. Both players will take their walks while hitting for power, but their numbers just aren’t explosive enough to make up for their lack of defensive value.

Josh Hamilton -> The comeback story of the decade, Hamilton is able to play one of the 3 toughest defensive positions, while carrying an OBP of .363 and slugging .542. However what hurts Hamilton’s case is he might not even be the best player on his own team, as Kinsler leads him OBP, doubles, hits and VORP. Still I would probably have Hamilton just missing the Top 5 because he can play center at about an average level, and provide any team with an offensive spark.

Number 5: Cliff Lee -> I’m always hesitant to put a pitcher on one of these list, since they don’t have the everyday impact that some of these other names do. Still Lee has been exceptional, but again I contest that he should watch his back, as Halladay isn’t too far behind. Halladay for his efforts would be somewhere in my top 15. Since we are mainly talking about offensive stats, I won’t go into Lee’s numbers here for obvious reasons.

Number 4: Kevin Youkilis -> I’m not a big Youkilis fan at all, but you can make a great case for him being the Redsox best player, not to mention one of the best players in the AL. He plays an easier position (which we already touched on) but his numbers really stand out when you compare him to the other guys I already mentioned. Youkilis’s line of .315/.387/.560 surpasses Morneau at first, and while he still slightly trails Quentin, Youkilis has more value because he plays a well above average first base, and has even shown the ability to play 3rd base for the Redsox when Lowell went down. Meanwhile Quentin can barely play leftfield, which knocks him below Youkilis in my book.

Number 3: Joe Mauer -> Catcher is a very tough position to fill, and usually any offense you get from it is considered a bonus. Mauer’s offensive however is better than most players in the league, as he continues to support an OBP over .400 while hitting for a high average and respectable power. Mauer’s power doesn’t exactly blow you away, but it’s respectable, thanks in part to his 27 doubles, and when you add in his A+ effort behind the plate, his value stands out in a big way.

Number 2: Alex Rodriguez-> Go ahead, call me a homer, I dare you. If you can tell me with a straight facethat his line of .315/.404/.602 is not worthy of this spot then go for it. Other than Milton Bradley, Arod is the only player on this list with an OPS over 1.000. He plays a decent 3rd base and can even steal you a bag if necessary. You can recite the “clutch” numbers to me all you want, and I’ll tell you how clutch numbers are a fluky stat that vary every year. And if you still want to tell me that he can’t hit in the clutch, I’ll tell you that makes him even more remarkable if he can put up these type of numbers in 7 innings a game or less. Oh yeah and Arod leads the AL in VORP, with a value of 65.2 runs better than a replacement level player.

Number 1: Grady Sizemore -> Yes two Cleveland Indians in the top 5, which just goes to show you how bad the rest of the team was this year. I’ve been waiting for this guy to “breakout” for 3 years now, and it appears he finally has done it. However unfortunately for Grady he probably won’t win any MVP award, heck he probably won’t even come in the top 5. The reason for this is because when the old time writers sit down to vote, they will look at his .273 batting average and say “that’s not all that special”. Then they’ll say “well his team wasn’t very good, so how valuable can he be”? Well Grady can take a walk, which is evident by his .385 OBP, he can hit for power as seen by his .525 slugging percentage and 31 homeruns. He has stolen 35 bases in 39 chances, has 281 total bases and has a VORP of 62, which only trails Arod. But what separates Grady from the pack is he is his ability to play an above average centerfield, while still putting up numbers that rival men who play first base or left field. Bottom line is Grady Sizemore is the most valuable player in the American League.

So there you have it, my picks for most valuable. You can probably tell by now I don’t care what place said player’s team finishes in. Baseball is a team sport and no one player can carry a team for a full 162 game season. I judge them on their numbers, the numbers that can give me the most information on how they accomplish their goal of putting runs on the board and not making outs. Despite everything I just wrote, I’m sure the voters won’t agree. I expect to see Pedroia and Quentin (although this new wrist injury will hurt him) and even Morneau’s name near the top spot come November. It’s funny how the media has such a man crush on Pedroia, probably because he’s scrappy, while Jeter got snubbed in 2006 despite his numbers being far better. Jeter’s line in 2006 was .343/.417/.483, and had 39 doubles, 14 homeruns, 301 total bases, 34 stolen bases and 214 hits. Pedroia could match these numbers, yet even if he does we’ll hear about how great he was, yet while Jeter was chasing the MVP award in 2006, people saw it more as a lifetime achievement type of award for him. Like I said you can’t predict this stuff anymore, but it is still fun to debate.

That’s it for me, sorry for veering off the track a bit for those who came here looking for Yankee related news only. I’ll have lots of new Yankee news when I return from Boston on Wednesday. I’ll be seeing Fenway for the first time if this hurricane can hold off for a few days. So I’ll have lots of fun stuff to discuss with you then. Thoughts and comments can be sent to jvg019@yahoo.com. Later!

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