NFL FANTASY - 08 SLEEPERS
August 22, 2008 by Dan Legroulx
Filed under Fantasy, NFL Football
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There are only two kinds of fantasy football players. Those who play it hardcore, who scrutinize their roster on a daily basis, make more trades then a bad GM, and profess to tell you how good of a Fantasy player they are. Then there are those who love the NFL but couldn’t really care less about match-ups, preparation, or what the next guy’s about to do. In either case, if your heading into your draft, or if you’ve already wrapped up your team and are unhappy with some of your late round picks, here’s a few sleepers to watch out for!Â
Keep in mind, that sleepers will never be or at least shouldn’t be in any case, high round picks. Stick to your guns and make sure that you fill your roster with studs. You lose all advantage of the so-called “sleeper pick” if you draft them too early. Draft position will vary based on your league size, and roster spots available. Less roster spots, or a smaller league size can devalue the sleeper pick. So make sure to take into account how your league is structured. The deeper the league is, the better chance you have at making the so-called experts cringe when your sleepers turn out to be bangers. (2007: Ryan Grant, Derek Anderson, David Garrard…)
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2008 SLEEPER PICKS
1) QB - JAKE DELHOMME
Delhomme was off to the best start of his career last season before injuring his elbow in week 3. (8TD’s, 1 INT, 111.8 QB RATING). From all indications Delhomme has healed nicely from his Tommy John surgery. Steve Smith will be out for the first two games of the season but don’t let that deter you, Fantasy football isn’t a two week season. The addition of D.J. Hackett and the return of Muhsin Muhammad to Carolina could really add some punch to this offense. If Delhomme is available later, take him. There’s more reward then risk with him.Â
2) WR - ROBERT MEACHEM
The former University of Tennessee standout missed the entire season last year while recovering from a leg injury. Drafted 27th overall by the Saints in 07, you shouldn’t need a reminder of what he can do. The decision to inactivate him for the entire season came as a surprise to many people. Meachem has rehabilitated well and is expected to be a huge part of this Saints offense. Drew Brees is looking to improve on last season and Meachem should prove to be a good 2nd option for him. With injuries in the Saints bakckfield last year, Marques Coloston saw a lot of double coverage. Something that tanked his stats a bit. Don’t undervalue the fact that he’s been able to study the Saints playbook for a full season. Expect a leaner, healthier Meachem this season to be hungry to prove why he was drafted in the first round.Â
3) RB - THOMAS JONES
Thomas Jones could be “the” breakout sleeper this year, with a revamped O-Line and number 4 behind center. Adding Favre to that lineup adds instant credibility to the Jets. Jones put up a disgusting year last year with only 2TD’s. (1 receiving, 1 Rushing), but can you blame him? J-E-T-S sucked, sucked, sucked! However, this isn’t your same old Jets. Alan Faneca and Damien Woody should boast that O-line significantly and should provide running room that simply wasn’t there last year. Add Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery to the mix, with a QB that can throw the ball more than 20 yards, and you might just have a winning formula. (At least stats wise!) The best news about Thomas Jones, is that he should be available very late in most drafts because of the sub-par season last year. Don’t be concerned with drafting this 30 year old back after you already have your top RB’s locked and loaded.
4) RB - JUSTIN FARGAS
Re-signing Fargas should prove to be a key move for Al Davis and the organization. Fargas had a breakout season last year for the Raiders rushing for over a 1000 yards, while only starting seven games. Fargas has deceptive speed once he hits the open field, and he’s not afraid to run between the tackles or pound the ball for tough yards. There’s a learning curve in the NFL, one that the Raiders will go through this year, with JaMarcus Russell, Darren McFadden, and Michael Bush all looking to have an impact for the silver and black. Entering his sixth season with Oakland, Fargas could prove to be the stability that the Raiders need, especially in short yardage situations with so many young playmakers in that offense. Don’t draft him too early or he loses value, look to secure him in later rounds or possibly even handcuff him with Mcfadden if your league is setup with deep rosters.
5) WR - ANTHONY GONZALEZ
There’s no doubt that Marivn Harrison, Reggie Wayne, and Dallas Clark will be Peyton Manning’s top offensive weapons again. If there’s something the Colts do as well as any other team in the league, it’s spreading the ball. Gonzalez caught 3 TD’s last year in his rookie campaign, but should improve on those numbers this season. Marvin Harrison started only 5 games last year because of a knee sprain, and fantasy owners should be weary of a 35 year old wide-out with knee problems. Harrison will still be up there in fantasy drafts, and you shouldn’t hesitate to draft him if you get that opportunity because after all he still is Marvin Harrison. Fantasy drafts are about value and position, Gonzalez can give you both if you can snag him as a 3rd receiver. Coming off an 11TD season, defensive coordinators will look to stop Dallas Clark from eating up the middle again, which could leave a lot of room for Gonzalez to run deeper post routes.
Who’s your sleepers?
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Dan Legroulx
danlegroulx@gmail.com
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August 22nd, 2008 at 4:17 am
I will say Alge Crumpler, Zach Miller, Kevin Smith, James Hardy, Matt Leinart, Anthony Gonzalez, Steve Smith, & Donald Lee.
Just off the top of my head.
August 22nd, 2008 at 4:20 am
I definitely think Lee will have a good year. I thought he showed signs of brilliance last year, now it will be left up to him to see if he can do it consistently …
August 22nd, 2008 at 5:14 am
I also do like Kevin Smith in Detriot, with them being more commited to running he could benefit fantasy owners who take him in the later rounds for depth.
August 22nd, 2008 at 7:38 am
My prediction for a super-sleeper this year is Ray Rice.
With McGahee already having injury woes, I don’t think it portends well for him. Even though Baltimore took a hit on the OL, they are a run-first team (wouldn’t you be with their QB situation?) and I see Rice being a big surprise.
August 22nd, 2008 at 8:03 am
I was going to mention him yet can’t figure out why………good choice frank.
August 22nd, 2008 at 9:03 am
My sleepers would be Rob Johnson, Ryan Leaf and Tim Couch……….oh no wait, they are in a coma. Never mind.
I like the blog. Good info, and I like that you put Fargas in on it, because I believe that he will have one heak of a year, in what will be a run first offense for the Raiders.
Good call on Crumpler, James. I bet that he will have a great year also, as Young will have to check it down a lot with that recieving core he has.
August 22nd, 2008 at 9:09 am
That’s why I included a few tight ends, they are going to help out more then some think especially so the qb’s establish some confidence.
August 22nd, 2008 at 9:18 am
Nice first blog Dan!
I agree Frank, Ray Rice could be the offensive rookie of year if McGahee continues to be banged up!
August 22nd, 2008 at 9:19 am
Nice call Dan on Meachem. He was a stud at Tennessee and being healthy he should have a big year in New Orleans!
August 22nd, 2008 at 12:17 pm
Yeah guys, you brought up some really good names. I didn’t want to bore you guys with a list of 30 sleepers, but rather give you some insight as to how I am approaching it. So my five is just my toppers. But I couldn’t agree with you guys more on Rice. He made my top 10, but not quite the top 5. McGahee is the real question mark. I would definitely suggest handcuffing him with Mcgahee. Because of his injury and likelihood to miss the rest of the pre-season (minimum), Rice will get to pound the rock more then anticipated. But if Mgahee gets back into the flow of things, they could definitely get a solid 1-2 punch going, and you might be able to pick them up later in drafts then you would expect. Handcuffing them might the best option bar none.
August 22nd, 2008 at 12:20 pm
P.S. Im hoping Rice doesn’t tear it up, or else my McGahee Ravens jersey will have to end up in the “why did you buy it” pile!
August 22nd, 2008 at 2:13 pm
Ray Rice is on the top of my list. Kind of reminds me of Joe Morris.
Anthony Gonzalez is going to have a big impact this year and will continue to overtake Marvin Harrison.
Far be it from me to be a homer, but I think Chris Johnson is going to rack up a bunch of all purpose yards as a rookie. I also think Marshawn Lynch will be a good value pick.
August 24th, 2008 at 3:57 pm
I don’t do fantacy drafts because I hate going for the teams I don’t like, and the good players are generally on the teams I dont like, But I help my buddy out with his. This year he got the following:
QB: Carson Palmer, Brett Favre
RB: Willie Parker, Ernest Graham, Justin Fargas, Ray Rice
WR: Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, Jerricho Cotchery, DeSean Jackson
TE: Alge Crumpler, Heath Miller
DB: Gibril Wilson, Ellis Hobbs
DL: Jared Allen, Jason Taylor, Mario Williams
K: Robbie Gould
What do you think?
August 25th, 2008 at 2:24 am
I know what you mean. i love NFL Sundays, but I hate having to root against my own team simply to fulfill my draft needs.
Your depth at WR and DL are what impresses me the most.
Your RB core is good, but not solidified. By that I mean that you have 3 guys on there with breakout potential, but will they breakout? I would of liked to have seen, a Brady, Manning, LT, or AP type of player at the QB-RB spot. In drafts I’ve learned that you can only pick so many guys on potential. Sometimes you need a monster or two that is guaranteed to bring in some value fantasy points. I usually try and make sure to get those value points out of a QB or RB and not a WR since most drafts are set-up to benefit both the QB and RB positions.
But that being said, its fun to look at your roster and see both TO and Moss out there. Palmer should have a better season this year, and Cotchery will benefit from Favre being there. All and all, I’d rate it between a B and B+. Not to shabby!
And somehow I’ve drafted Robbie Gould 3 times already this year in my drafts! So I’m rooting for you!
August 25th, 2008 at 3:04 am
It might just be a tough year for QBs because the top 2 (Manning and Brady) are both coming off injury. I dont know how much that will effect either of them, but it could be pretty scary. Expecially since they are first round guys.
As for the runningbacks, the top guys went in the first 6 picks, and we went 9th, so it became more important to get the widerecievers, as there is more depth at RB then their is at WR. Expecially since in this fantacy draft, you use 3 WR and only 2 RB.
One guy in our draft goy Payton Manning and Tony Romo. Crazy huh?
After looking at everyone elses draft, I would say that we fair well to win it all.
We will see.