2008 Pac 10 Preview

Finally!

We’re just a week away from the opening kickoff of North America’s undisputed best regular season. I couldn’t be more excited about it if I tried – especially considering this may very well be USC’s redemption year. The John David Booty era came and went with two more Pac 10 Titles and Rose Bowl victories, but stumbles against formidable and surprising foes in the conference kept them out of the National Championship Game.  The Main Man in Troy is now Mark Sanchez – a guy who has waited his turn, just like Booty did. He’s a guy who’s ready, he’s a guy who wants it and a he’s guy who will win.

The Pac 10 as a whole, meanwhile, isn’t looking as strong overall as it has in years past.  Most of the other teams have lost significant pieces and don’t have recruiting gurus like Pete Carroll running the show. As it has been since 2002, this Pac 10 season will likely consist of USC and nine other teams trying to catch them!

Here’s where I think everyone will finish, and a breakdown of each squad: 

1. USC Trojans (AP # 3, Coaches #2): This defense is as good as any other in all of college football. In fact, it might be the best defense USC has ever had….on paper. When I say on paper, injuries to Rey Maualuga, Taylor Mays or Fili Moala will hurt this team in ways that I can’t even explain. The depth at most of these positions isn’t quite what it used to be, but the starters are so good that offenses are going to have a terrible time trying to establish rhythm. Offensively, USC has four running backs that are good enough to start on any team in all of college football. Ironically, the fifth, Emmanuel Moody, now holds that job in Gainesville! The quarterback position belongs to Sanchez, but transfer Mitch Mustain is a more than capable backup. I would be shocked if he doesn’t see any meaningful playing time this year. An early issue USC will have is the fact that they have four new starters on their offensive line. The tailbacks, particularly Joe McKnight and Stafon Johnson will be called upon early to ease that transition.

All in all, USC has the tools to run the table and win the National Title in 2008. It’s imperative that they learn from their mistakes last year, where they took conference opponents too lightly. Ohio St. isn’t the only game on their schedule – in fact, it’s the only game they can afford to lose and still sneak into the big dance!

Fortunately for the Trojans, their three games against pre-season ranked opponents are all at home (Ohio St, Arizona St, Oregon).

2. Arizona State Sun Devils (AP #15, Coaches #16): I’ve never seen a team with worse scheduling luck than what Dennis Erickson’s group will have to endure between Sept 20 and Oct 25. That stretch includes four games against top-ranked Georgia, a road game at Cal, a road game against conference bully USC and a home game against Oregon. If the Sun Devils find a way to get out of that stretch with only a single loss, as much as it pains me to say it, they will win this conference.

What ASU does have going for them, however, is the best receiving corps in the Pac 10. Mike Jones led the way with 10 TDs in 2007 and Chris McGaha led the team with 61 catches. Rudy Carpenter and Keegan Herring are also back, meaning there’s no reason to believe the Sun Devils won’t be lighting up the scoreboard in most of their games.

I just can’t see them finding a way to beat Georgia and USC though. As good as ASU is, their talent level doesn’t match up. It’s too bad because they’re so close, yet they’re so far. Can you imagine if they beat Georgia though? That would set up a showdown with USC two weeks later – one that has the makings of the game of the year.

3. California Golden Bears (unranked): Even though Oregon holds a preseason ranking in both the AP and Coaches poll, I think Cal has a better shot at finishing third in the Pac 10, given the fact that they have fewer offensive holes to fill, namely at running back with the return of Jahvid Best. I fully expect him to return to form after going down with a hip injury as a freshman. Before the injury, he was averaging 7.6 yards per carry and if he can average somewhere in the 6 ypc range, it will take the pressure off the Bears’ aerial attack, which lost DeSean Jackson, Lavelle Hawkins and Robert Jordan to the draft. Meanwhile, Nyan Boateng is in from Florida at wideout and he should take some of the pressure off.

Schedule-wise, the Bears don’t have it that rough. They open with an out-of-conference game against consistently inconsistent Michigan St., then travel to Maryland and host Colorado St. in their other non-conference games. The only stinker is that they have to play USC on the road – a place they haven’t won since 2000.

4. Oregon Ducks (AP #21, Coaches #20):  How this team is even ranked is beyond me. The way they imploded last year when Dennis Dixon was injured, leaves me with no confidence whatsoever in the character of these players. Moreover, not only is Dixon gone, but their leading rusher Jonathan Stewart is also gone. There’s no way this team will even come close to where they were offensively last year, when they led the Pac 10 in scoring. Their only prayer is running back LaGarrette Blount – a transfer from junior college. He will have to carry a load that in my opinion, is too much for him to handle.

Defensively, Nick Reed should improve on his conference-leading 12 sacks from 2008. Patrick Chung’s also back at safety. He’ll need to come up big for this team. 

I’m excited about the fact that the Ducks play Boise St. on Sept. 20. The Broncos are one of those mid-major squads that’s good enough to play with anybody, and the Ducks may be in for a tough one there. If a lot goes their way, they may be able to squeak out nine wins. But like I said, a lot will have to go their way.

5. Arizona Wildcats (unranked): This is it for Head Coach Mike Stoops. If this team fails to earn a bowl berth this year, I can guarantee that his days in Arizona are over. His offense is virtually identical to last year’s, with 10 returning starters, most notably quarterback Willie Tuituma back in the fold. Defensively, however, the Cats have to find a way to replace eight starters this season. In other words, this might be the most fun team to watch in the Pac 10 this year. Expect a whole lot of high scoring games.

The one thing the Cats have going for them, is the fact that they have three duds as their non-conference opponents. Their opening three games consist of Idaho, Toledo and New Mexico, so they’ll have plenty of time to fine tune their offense and defense before they have to play the conference’s big boys.

6. UCLA Bruins (unranked): If you were to tell me in February that the UCLA Bruins would finish in the bottom tier of the Pac 10 in 2008, I would have called you an idiot. They had just brought in former cross-town offensive God Norm Chow to run Rick Neuheisel’s offense and they had all the quarterbacking talent any team could ever need with Patrick Cowan and Ben Olson. It looked like they were primed to challenge the Trojans for the conference title.

Somewhere along the way, the Pac 10 Gods sneezed on UCLA and down went Cowan and Olson before the season even started. The Bruins are now left with relatively unknown transfer Kevin Craft to start at quarterback to open the season. The offense has no rhythm and they’re forced to rely heavily on Kahlil Bell, who missed a good portion of 2007 with a knee injury.

Oh yeah – they open at home to #18 Tennessee and then travel to #16 Brigham Young. If they’re not 0-and-2 on Sept. 14^th, then I’m officially an idiot!

7. Oregon State Beavers (unranked): It’s not to say that Oregon State is necessarily a bad team, but they’re notorious for starting seasons off slowly and turning it on and sometimes, even beating their rivals from Eugene, late in the season. The fact that they’re such slow starters doesn’t bode well for them, considering they open with two on the road, including a visit to Penn State on Sept. 6, before heading home to take on the always-dangerous Hawaii Rainbow Warriors and USC in consecutive games. They may be 0-and-4 on Oct. 12 and at that point, there’s no way they’ll be able to crawl back into bowl position.

Making matters worse: the Beavers have a very unstable quarterback situation. Lyle Moevao is penciled in as the starter, ahead of Sean Canfield (who is much more game-ready, in my opinion) because of Canfield’s injury problems in 2007. Sammie Stroughter’s back on medical hardship, but who knows how effective he will be. OSU also only has three returning starters on defense. Fortunately, Brandon Hughes is one of them and his leadership will play a pivotal role in the development of the Beaver “d.”

8. Stanford Cardinal (unranked): You had to be impressed last year with Stanford – pulling off arguably the most improbable upset of the season (I haven’t forgotten about App State, but if you think about it, App State was at least the best team in Div 1AA).  Will they pull off a similar upset this year? Who the heck knows, but they have an opportunity to ruin USC’s season on November 15^th, when they get the Trojans at home. Coach Jim Harbaugh made a career out of being a giant killer in the NFL. He did it as a coach last year, so beware of this underrated squad.

The team has a wealth of depth on offense, including three capable quarterbacks with Tavita Pritchard (the Trojan-killer), Alex Loukas ans Jason Forcier. They’re also strong at tailback with Anthony Kimble, Toby Gerhart and Jeremy Stewart. What they’re missing is star power and as we know in college football, you can only recruit stars if you have a winning tradition and Stanford hasn’t won a Bowl game since 1996 and hasn’t won a Pac 10 Title since 1999.

9. Washington Huskies (unranked): Earlier in this blog I wrote about Arizona State’s ridiculously hard schedule and they’re considered by most as a good team! With all due respect to Tyrone Willingham’s squad, but Washington’s season will be over by week three. They open at Oregon, host #16 BYU and then host #4 Oklahoma! Ouch!!

Oh yeah – then in the middle of their season they have to play USC and ASU back to back. That’s just not fair.

Good luck Jake Locker. You start the season with three losses then have another two already added to the mix.

10. Washington State Cougars (unranked): And last and least – the other guys from up north. The Cougars welcome Paul Wulff from Eastern Washington, a guy who probably has no idea what he’s getting himself into. He doesn’t even have Alex Brink anymore! Instead, Gary Rogers will likely start at quarterback for the Cougars, meaning Dwight Tardy will be forced to rack up more yards than I think he’s capable of.

Bottom line – on paper, this is the least talented team in the conference. They just flat out stink. 

I bet they’re missing Ryan Leaf more than ever right now!!

Games To Watch (AP Rankings Only)

Week 1: #18 Tennessee @ UCLA – The Bruins will be tested early and often against the talented Volunteers. If they can pull this one off, they’ll be a confident bunch.

Week 2: #2 Ohio State @ #3 USC – This is the regular season’s game of the year. The winner instantly becomes an outright favorite to earn a spot in the BCS Championship Game.

Week 3: #1 Georgia @ #15 Arizona State – Last year, the Sun Devils were brought back to earth when they had to face the conference’s heavy hitters after starting the season 8-0. A visit from the Bulldogs this early in the season will have them battle-tested, win-or-lose.

Week 4: #3 USC @ Oregon State – Remember 2006? The Trojans sure do! It was their first conference loss in almost two years. USC returns to the scene of the crime on Sept. 25.

Week 5: #15 Arizona State @ California – This will be a tough game for the Sun Devils and given the fact that they have a bye the week beforehand, they may still be smarting from their game against Georgia.

Week 6: #15 Arizona State @ #3 USC – This is the Pac 10 game of the year. The Trojans will have an opportunity to distance themselves from the competition, while ASU may need this win to stay afloat. The Sun Devils will definitely be seeking redemption after last year’s 44-24 shellacking in Tempe.

Week 7: California @ Arizona – Both teams will have a shot at moving up in the Pac 10 standings, with Arizona St. potentially being out of contention. If USC is undefeated and BCS Championship bound, one of these teams can sneak into the Rose Bowl as an at-large. Mike Stoops will want this one badly.

Week 8: #21 Oregon @ #15 Arizona State – I’d be surprised if ASU blows this one, but it depends on where their confidence level is at.

Week 9: California @ #3 USC – There’s something about this game that reminds me of week 9 in 2004. That was the game Aaron Rodgers set an NCAA record for most consecutive completions in a game, while leading the Bears to within nine yards of spoiling USC’s season. That red zone stand by the Trojan defense was as good as it got.

Week 10: #3 USC @ Stanford – The loss that shocked the nation (or at least the Pac 10). Can the Cardinal pull it off again?

Week 11: Washington @ Washington State – I had to get these teams in there…somewhere!!

Week 12: Notre Dame @ #3 USC – The greatest intersectional rivalry in college football has turned into the greatest annual beating in the NCAA. It shouldn’t be different this year, but I’m a sentimental guy…so you know!

Week 13: #3 USC @ UCLA – Pasadena: the scene of the crime two years ago. UCLA would love to do it again. I hope I’m not crying by the end of this one.

Good season everyone!!!

DC

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