Last season the New England Patriots had arguably the most successful regular season in NFL history. Led by NFL MVP Tom Brady and Pro Bowl receiver Randy Moss the Patriots offense was record breaking. The Patriots won games by an average margin of 19.5 points on their way to a 16-0 record. Tom Brady threw for 4,806 yards and a record 50 touchdown passes. Brady also set an NFL record for the most games with three or more touchdown passes with twelve. Brady’s favorite target was Moss who silenced all of his critics with his own historic performance in 2007. Averaging just under 100 yards a game Moss broke Jerry Rice’s record for touchdown receptions in a season with 23. With all of these offensive numbers off the chart you would think that Brady and Moss would have top priority in your fantasy draft this season. In fact NFL.com rates both of these Patriots in their top 15 fantasy players for 2008.  But there is reason to believe that Brady and co. will be hard pressed to put up such gaudy numbers once again.

In 2007 the Patriots had what could be described as the perfect storm, no pun intended. Their offense was set for a breakout year, with off-season additions of receivers Donte’ Stallworth, Wes Welker, and Randy Moss the Patriots finally had a receiving corps for Tom Brady to work with. Brady didn’t disappoint throwing for an average of 300 yards and three touchdowns a game in 2007. Brady’s offensive attack left many clubs off balance, with Moss and Stallworth’s speed stretching the field and Welker in the slot it was almost impossible for their opponents to defend. Of course in the off-season Stallworth signed with the Cleveland Browns and it remains to be seen if Jabar Gaffney can step into his shoes this season.

The Patriots also feasted on their incredibly weak AFC East rivals in 2007. In fact 21 of Brady’s 50 touchdown passes were in the Patriots six divisional games. The Jets, Dolphins, and Bills combined to win just twelve games last season, that’s right four fewer then the Patriots. Next season all three clubs should be much improved as they have strengthened themselves through the draft and free-agency. At the very least the Patriots AFC East rivals should be able to prevent the ridiculous blowouts the Patriots enjoyed in 2007.
The biggest factor heading into this season will be the Patriots production in close games. Last year the Patriots played only four games decided by ten points or less. In those games Brady’s performances were more human like averaging just 282 yards a game with 1.5 touchdowns. In close games Moss’ numbers remained consistent, but twice he was kept out of the endzone in their close contests. With many questions remaining about the Patriots defense and an improved division one can only assume that the Patriots will play more tight games this season. Which means Brady and Moss will once again be very good this season but expect their numbers to go down. Come October fantasy owners don’t say we didn’t warn you.

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