Since ESPN thinks every baseball debate has to be linked to the Yankees and the Redsox (most would agree with me on this I think, but we’ll have to save this discussion for some other time), I have come up with my own Yanks-Sox topic to over analyze.  I’m sure you heard the news that the future Republican governor of Massachusetts, Mr. Curt Schilling, will miss the remainder of the season after announcing his plans to go forward with the shoulder surgery he so obviously needed in spring training.  As we have discussed in the past, pitchers almost always come back from elbow injuries, however shoulder injuries can be a much stickier situation, especially for 40 year olds.  Therefore there is absolutely nothing wrong with thinking that Schilling may be done with baseball, and if so, reflecting back on his 20 year career. 

I don’t think I’ve made it a secret that I’m not a fan of Curt Schilling the human being.  If you look up the word ego, there would be a picture of Schilling next to it in the dictionary.  I think he feels his opinions on topics are something everyone should hear, which is why I feel safe in my prediction above that Curt will one day be holding a political position in New England.  It also doesn’t help that he has always been a rival of my favorite team, and never passes up the opportunity to rip on the Yankee fans.  I even refer to him as Schillinger in my general baseball conversations, and if you’ve ever seen the HBO show Oz, you’ll know why.  However love him or hate him, you have to acknowledge that he had a very good career, and always seemed to rise to the occasion on the big stage.  However the question is how good was Curt Schilling?  Does he make the Hall of Fame or the Hall of Very Good?  Many of the analysis at ESPN have stated they feel he’s a Hall of Famer (well there’s a shock!).  Now I acknowledge he’s very close, and if he gets in some day I don’t think it would be a huge travesty as say Jim Rice getting in (and yet another good debate to have).  However if Schilling gets into the Hall, it could open the door for a few other borderline candidates, such as Mike Mussina. 

Most people don’t think of Moose as being a Hall of Famer, however when you compare him to Schilling, you could argue Moose has had a similar or possibly even a better career.  So why is it that Schilling is considered a near lock and Moose isn’t?  Obviously Schilling’s postseason history plays a huge role in this, but one’s Hall of Fame inclusion should be based more so on regular season statistics if you ask me.  So let’s compare what the two of these guys have done during their regular season careers, and if need be we’ll take a look at the postseason numbers at the end.  Does Moose have the better regular season numbers than Curt, or did Curt have the better career peak than Moose?  Let’s take a look:

	Mussina	Schilling
Years	18	20
Starts	516	436
Wins	259	216
CG	57	83
Shutouts	23	20
Innings	3,437.70	3,261
Hits Allowed	3328	2998
Walks	765	711
Strikeouts	2705	3116
ERA	3.70	3.46
ERA +	122	127
20 Win Seasons	0	3
All Star App	5	6
Top 5 CY Votes	6	4
Top 10 CY Votes	8	4
Gold Gloves	6	0
Championships	0	3

 

Well there are the stats in black and white, so after you look them over you have to ask yourself what stands out the most between the two players.  First thing I noticed was Moose has started a lot more games than Schilling, and he managed to do so in 2 fewer seasons.  This will also help account for Moose’s 43 extra wins.  Both were quite durable while healthy though, as Schilling’s 83 complete games are outstanding, but so is Mussina’s 23 shutouts.  So my first though is Moose was consistently good over his whole career, as Schilling had a few seasons in his late 20s where he missed a lot of time due to injuries.  However does that mean Moose had the better peak, not necessarily. 

The Moose knuckle-curve has him just shy off 3,000 strikeouts, while Schilling’s split finger fastball helped make him one of the dominate strikeout pitchers of his generation.  What made Schilling such a special pitcher was his ability to rack up large number of strikeouts and keep runners off base via the free pass.  Schilling’s K/BB ratio was an astounding 4.38 (means almost 5 strikeouts per each walk issued).  Mussina’s K/BB ratio was 3.54, which is also very good but not at Schillings level.  If you want to look at the fantasy stat WHIP, Schilling has the slight lead at 1.14 vs. 1.19.  Both players ERA & ERA+ are nearly identical, with Schilling having the slight lead in both.  But you could argue that Moose had to face DH’s while Schilling faced pitchers 3 times a game, so the minor differences in ERA and WHIP are basically a wash.  Looking at the numbers its tough to really separate the two, except for saying that Moose pitched consistently well his whole career, allowing him to close in on 300 wins, while Schilling was a tad more dominate which is shown in the overall strikeouts and K/BB ratio.  How much of this is a result of the two pitching in different leagues for a while is debatable, but Schilling did show he could handle the AL once he made the switch over. 

If you want to look at the sexy stats (I call them this because its easier for the media and fans to point to these instead of doing the math equations to get ERA+, WHIP, etc) again both compare favorably.  Neither have won a CY Young award, but both were consistently in the Top 10 for voting.  Also they are nearly identical in All-Star game appearances, and Moose should tie Schilling with 6 if he continues strong this season.  Moose has him dominated in gold gloves which is nice, but how much stock can you put into an award Derek Jeter has taken 2 out of the past 3 years (I love Derek but his defense isn’t very good).  The big knock on Moose is that he hasn’t won 20 games (19 game winner twice) and he’s never won a championship, compared to Schilling who has won 3 rings and has won 20 games 3 times.  If it means anything to you baseball-reference.com has Mussina’s closest comparison being Juan Marichal, while Schillings is Bob Welch. 

So ignoring the playoffs, what conclusion can I come to from looking at these regular season numbers?  Honestly I really don’t know, both were very good for a long period of time.  Schilling was more dominate, but did pitch in an easier league for most of his career.  Moose came within 1 out of a perfect game, Schilling came within 1 out of a no-hitter.  Mike Mussina truly lives up to the nickname Mr. Almost, which will hurt him in the future voting process.  Schilling was a visible figure, and pitching in Boston has definitely helped his cause.  While much has been made of Schilling’s postseason numbers, I must point out that Moose was no slouch in the postseason himserlf, as his record is only 7-8, but he has a respectable 3.42 era and 142 strikeouts in 21 starts, which is more than Schilling’s 120 strikeouts in 19 starts. 

My gut reaction is Schilling gets in, probably not first or even second ballot but he does get in.  His postseason success will sway the voters, although it hasn’t helped Jack Morris much.  Mussina will be his generations version of Bert Blylven.  A very good pitcher who was never though of as dominant, but was consistenly good every year.  Mussina may also be helped when the voters reflect back on the steroid era and see what he was able to accomplish against those hitters.  Only way Mussina could make himself a lock is to pitch another 3 years and win 300 games.  Oh and in case you were wondering, Bert Blylven has 287 wins, won 20 games once, had an era of 3.31 and a K/BB ratio of 2.80.  I’ve said I think Blylven deserves to get in, but he’ll have to move over and allow these two guys to get in front of him in line if you ask me. 

Oh btw, Schillinger is now talking about pitching again next year, which shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone.  You know he doesn’t want to miss the opportunity of potentially riding in on his bloody sock and capturing the spotlight yet again.  He could choose not to comeback, but I put the odds of that happening about the same as Moose finally winning 20 games at the age of 39.

What do you think?  Is there an important stat I’m missing or neglecting?  Let me know and we can discuss this further.  Comments and Questions can also be sent to jvg019@yahoo.com. 

 

 

 

 

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